Bill Proenza gone; tropical update
With hurricane season fast approaching and internal strife threatening "the effective functioning of the National Hurricane Center", as stated in a letter signed by 23 of NHC's 49 employees, NOAA did the best thing by reassigning director Bill Proenza this afternoon. Conrad Lautenbacher, the head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, announced Proenza has been placed on leave "until further notice."
The reassignment puts NHC deputy director Ed Rappaport, 49, into the director's hot seat. I greatly respect Dr. Rappaport, who has done a great job as deputy director and is a highly skilled hurricane forecaster. Dr. Rappaport has a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Sciences from Texas Tech. He began work in 1988 at NHC, and served as one NHC's Hurricane Specialists before becoming chief of the Technical Support Branch. He is the best choice for director of NHC. He had wide support to become director last year when Max Mayfield retired, but turned down the job due to family reasons.
Tropical update
There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. A cold front is expected to push off the U.S. East Coast by Sunday, and we will have to watch the waters off the North Carolina coast then for development when the front stalls out. In the Pacific, an exceptionally large Category 1 typhoon, Man-Yi, is expected to become a major typhoon, and will threaten Japan late this week.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Just enjoying a beautiful Independence Day here in the Bahamas. I'm convinced July 10th was selected at least partially because we always have good weather in early July LOL.
Like others I'm watching Man-yi and noting that outflow clouds are already over the Philippines. Doesn't it seem like it's taking a long time to consolidate itself?
On the ATL, I'm still thinking we will get something before the end of the month. It may not make it to hurricane status or last too long because of high shear or SAL dust, but I think one of these waves popping off W Africa in the next 10 - 14 days is going to organize itself.
Should be interesting now as the core will become insulated from drier air that has been intruding from the north and inhibiting development.
Is my impression as well. The COC has closed off more then ever and it is building decent flow and convection now on the N-NW side.
Too much emphasis put on an outdated satellite.
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What makes you so sure? A Category 3 or 4 is pretty much a certainty in Japan or wherever it is. Unless something drastically happens at the last minute, that is... I don't really like when people say that, when only the good Lord Jesus knows what will happen.
Yeah nash, I agree completely.
And Baha, yes, that looks like a trough over Japan, I believe. Man-yi is so large that shear would take quite awhile to completely kill it off. Also, if shear blows around Man-yi and not directly over its center, that could open an outflow channel and allow for more strengthening.
Look at the eye developing on vapour imagery:
A day without, well, MOSTLY without crap on here....
*bites tongue, will not name names*
is it it's size?
I've been looking at the loop, and it appears there is a low pressure system over Siberia Mongolia and China that the JMA forecasters are likely expecting to turn / push Man-yi out to sea again.
It's interesting to be able to apply things you've gleaned by looking at Atlantic situations to other locations around the globe. It reminds us that after all, its all the same weather. . .
Just do what I do, get the hip boots out. Makes it much easier to wade thru the crap.
So far, a nice slow START to the season. Anyone in the South Florida area notice how HOT it is, even at night the wind is like standing in front of a hairdryer... Funny how the spa is set to 98 and because of the heat the water temp is 100...
flying crap, are ya happy, those are wings BTW. LOL
RE wave @ 35, thought that was doing something weird.
Man-yi is REALLY something to watch, glad it's over there but feel for those people. My son said he saw a special where Tokyo had an underground reservoir just for storm surge waters?
TCHP is ABOVE 2005 levels. It would be ugly.
Jet fuel that has been untouched for two years now.
H23 better hope his wish of strong troughiness comes to fruition, as long as they are all northerly Cape Verde systems..
Iam thinking this season florida and the carolinas will have to look out for similar tracks like the on ernesto took which was a hurricane though not for long but the outcome for southflorida could have been much different if ernesto would have come of cuba sooner.Those mountians saved us from a major hurricane.Adrian
If a system were to tap into the water in the NW Caribbean first and then moved into the SE Gomex, THAT would be the worst case scenario.
Haven't chatted with you in a few days but then again, not much to talk about right now !
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An Ernesto Track? I thought you said trofs would play a factor wouldn't that kick systems out to sea before the Carolinas? Wouldn't a path such as that favor what Nash and others have said of an A/B High set up further West?
**shakes head***
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Hurricane 23,
An Ernesto Track? I thought you said trofs would play a factor wouldn't that kick systems out to sea before the Carolinas? Wouldn't a path such as that favor what Nash and others have said of an A/B High set up further West?
If we get one to sneak up under a track like this is always possible in my opinion.Not every system will get turned away you always have to be ready for that possibility of 1-2 systems making into the caribbean.Its all about timing with a tropical cyclone.
If this patterns remains there will be very little recurvature this season
Better tell that to Dr. Masters. Maybe you can convince him!
Man-Yi
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