Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Bill Proenza gone; tropical update
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:35 PM GMT on July 09, 2007 +2
With hurricane season fast approaching and internal strife threatening "the effective functioning of the National Hurricane Center", as stated in a letter signed by 23 of NHC's 49 employees, NOAA did the best thing by reassigning director Bill Proenza this afternoon. Conrad Lautenbacher, the head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, announced Proenza has been placed on leave "until further notice."

The reassignment puts NHC deputy director Ed Rappaport, 49, into the director's hot seat. I greatly respect Dr. Rappaport, who has done a great job as deputy director and is a highly skilled hurricane forecaster. Dr. Rappaport has a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Sciences from Texas Tech. He began work in 1988 at NHC, and served as one NHC's Hurricane Specialists before becoming chief of the Technical Support Branch. He is the best choice for director of NHC. He had wide support to become director last year when Max Mayfield retired, but turned down the job due to family reasons.

Tropical update
There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. A cold front is expected to push off the U.S. East Coast by Sunday, and we will have to watch the waters off the North Carolina coast then for development when the front stalls out. In the Pacific, an exceptionally large Category 1 typhoon, Man-Yi, is expected to become a major typhoon, and will threaten Japan late this week.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Politics
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1301. sporteguy03 11:00 AM GMT on July 11, 2007    
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What's this? The CMC developing something North of Hispanola? More on this all day at Dr.M's blog!
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 4824
1302. sunshineandshowers 11:04 AM GMT on July 11, 2007    
man-yi looking very impressive?

I can see this becoming a supertyphoon by Friday if it get's it continues to get its act together.

The models are showing rapid dissapationg though as it aprroaches Japan, maybe not even making landfall on the mainland. I guess that's good news but I can't see that happening. There would have to be some serious wind shear.
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1303. IKE 11:06 AM GMT on July 11, 2007    
sporteguy03....maybe that's the system out in the Atlantic that they show north of Hispanola in 144 hours?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
1304. IKE 11:12 AM GMT on July 11, 2007    
And looking at the CMC model run...it could be that system around 30-35 west.
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1305. scwindsaloft 11:15 AM GMT on July 11, 2007    
gfs hints at the same system t=144

Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 396
1306. bobw999 11:20 AM GMT on July 11, 2007    
Maybe like Chris last year:


1307. stormybil 11:22 AM GMT on July 11, 2007    
this might help .local news says watching a tropical wave by pr that will be in the car and may develope stay tuned
1308. IKE 11:25 AM GMT on July 11, 2007    
There's nothing by PR...

The system with some promise is about at 8N,32W.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
1309. stormybil 11:26 AM GMT on July 11, 2007    
i dont see it either but they do somewhere hehe but i do see the one by 35 been asking about that all night
1310. groundman 11:42 AM GMT on July 11, 2007    
Posted By: IKE at 11:12 AM GMT on July 11, 2007.
And looking at the CMC model run...it could be that system around 30-35 west.


I haven't looked on models closely this morn but that's the one that was looking more solid than the others for lack of a better word.

Oh and GOOD MORNING all. Man-yi looks more impressive by the moment.
1311. Stormchaser2007 11:42 AM GMT on July 11, 2007    
Like drak would say : " 144 hours is like looking into a crystal ball" lol
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248
1312. franck 11:47 AM GMT on July 11, 2007    
Eight millibars in an an hour and a half. Is that right? By the look of cloud formation, Man Yi is still in its infancy.
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1314. Patrap 11:48 AM GMT on July 11, 2007    
Man-yi guidance track and Info..JTWC

Link
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1315. Stormchaser2007 11:49 AM GMT on July 11, 2007    
.
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1316. Patrap 11:50 AM GMT on July 11, 2007    
West-Pacific Full Disk IR. Man-yi centered.

Link
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1317. Patrap 11:51 AM GMT on July 11, 2007    
Okinawa now in full prep mode for Man-yi.Kadena AFB moving Aircraft to Points off the Island.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111503
1318. BahaHurican 11:52 AM GMT on July 11, 2007    
Morning all,

I'll be out most of the day, so I won't be able to add much to the blog. However, I have to say Man-yi is looking ever more impressive with each 12-hour period. I'll be fascinated to see what it looks like by the time I get back this evening!

Sunshine, on the rapid dissapation, look at a sat. loop that shows the area NW of Japan. Looks like some competition for the space may be coming along to at least redirect Man-yi if not to destroy it.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17661
1319. MissBennet 11:53 AM GMT on July 11, 2007    
Thanks for the Sat. Pic Patrap, Man-yi sure is getting pretty.
1320. sporteguy03 11:57 AM GMT on July 11, 2007    
StormW,
Good Morning, today the GFS and CMC are hinting at development. Look forward to Synopsis
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 4824
1321. CycloneQld 11:57 AM GMT on July 11, 2007    
Man-Yi is really ramping it up now...

Dvorak readings are now stating that winds are approaching 100kts and that surface pressures are below 950mb - that is a drop of almost 30mb in just 3 hours.

According to those readings Man-Yi is easily a Cat 3 already and well on the way to being a super typhoon.

Centre temps are now reporting in the positives for the first time also, meaning that the eye is now cloud free to allow the column of air within free to aid in the further intensification of the storm.

1322. stoormfury 12:08 PM GMT on July 11, 2007    
good morning

the MDR is a death bed for any systems trying to form., because of the high wind shear. Also the SAL is very dense all the way from Africa to the lesser Antilles. The only area is at 9N 32W ahead of a westward moving tropical wave at 28W.

DOES ANYONE HAVE ANY FORECAST AS TO WHEN THE SHEAR WILL RELAX.
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1323. groundman 12:16 PM GMT on July 11, 2007    
stoormfury, what is the MDR?? I know MJO and SAL but MDR?
1325. Patrap 12:20 PM GMT on July 11, 2007    
Man-yi. - Multispectral Satellite Imagery

Link

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111503
1326. Stormchaser2007 12:21 PM GMT on July 11, 2007    
Hey StormW what time does your synopsis come out?? Im always so impressed by it.
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1328. IKE 12:27 PM GMT on July 11, 2007    
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
1329. CycloneQld 12:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2007    
If Japan thinks Godzilla is big then they should take a look at this...

Man-Yi Eyewall


Dvorak Man-Yi Current


The beast has been unleashed...

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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