Bill Proenza gone; tropical update
With hurricane season fast approaching and internal strife threatening "the effective functioning of the National Hurricane Center", as stated in a letter signed by 23 of NHC's 49 employees, NOAA did the best thing by reassigning director Bill Proenza this afternoon. Conrad Lautenbacher, the head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, announced Proenza has been placed on leave "until further notice."
The reassignment puts NHC deputy director Ed Rappaport, 49, into the director's hot seat. I greatly respect Dr. Rappaport, who has done a great job as deputy director and is a highly skilled hurricane forecaster. Dr. Rappaport has a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Sciences from Texas Tech. He began work in 1988 at NHC, and served as one NHC's Hurricane Specialists before becoming chief of the Technical Support Branch. He is the best choice for director of NHC. He had wide support to become director last year when Max Mayfield retired, but turned down the job due to family reasons.
Tropical update
There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. A cold front is expected to push off the U.S. East Coast by Sunday, and we will have to watch the waters off the North Carolina coast then for development when the front stalls out. In the Pacific, an exceptionally large Category 1 typhoon, Man-Yi, is expected to become a major typhoon, and will threaten Japan late this week.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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What's this? The CMC developing something North of Hispanola? More on this all day at Dr.M's blog!
I can see this becoming a supertyphoon by Friday if it get's it continues to get its act together.
The models are showing rapid dissapationg though as it aprroaches Japan, maybe not even making landfall on the mainland. I guess that's good news but I can't see that happening. There would have to be some serious wind shear.
The system with some promise is about at 8N,32W.
And looking at the CMC model run...it could be that system around 30-35 west.
I haven't looked on models closely this morn but that's the one that was looking more solid than the others for lack of a better word.
Oh and GOOD MORNING all. Man-yi looks more impressive by the moment.
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I'll be out most of the day, so I won't be able to add much to the blog. However, I have to say Man-yi is looking ever more impressive with each 12-hour period. I'll be fascinated to see what it looks like by the time I get back this evening!
Sunshine, on the rapid dissapation, look at a sat. loop that shows the area NW of Japan. Looks like some competition for the space may be coming along to at least redirect Man-yi if not to destroy it.
Good Morning, today the GFS and CMC are hinting at development. Look forward to Synopsis
Dvorak readings are now stating that winds are approaching 100kts and that surface pressures are below 950mb - that is a drop of almost 30mb in just 3 hours.
According to those readings Man-Yi is easily a Cat 3 already and well on the way to being a super typhoon.
Centre temps are now reporting in the positives for the first time also, meaning that the eye is now cloud free to allow the column of air within free to aid in the further intensification of the storm.
the MDR is a death bed for any systems trying to form., because of the high wind shear. Also the SAL is very dense all the way from Africa to the lesser Antilles. The only area is at 9N 32W ahead of a westward moving tropical wave at 28W.
DOES ANYONE HAVE ANY FORECAST AS TO WHEN THE SHEAR WILL RELAX.
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The beast has been unleashed...
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