TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana
Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.
Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.
Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.
This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.
I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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GHCC site usually updates before the SSD site. SSD is usually 15-30 minutes behind the SSD site. I do like the overlays on the SSD site and the CIMSS site as well. Also like the fact that the North America GOES east imagery updates more often on the GHCC as well as providing a higher zoom factor then the other sectors there.
Also find that link and much more on the Quick Links page.
Link
Just wondering usually this time of year these things (Storms) turn more to the right or east should I say. With this new invest (94L) I know it shows it going towards the western gulf coast, possible TX/LA area but do you think this could make that turn to the right before it gets that far north west???
Taco :0)
LOL. Leave it to you to bring a little levity to the blog..
OOH RAH LEATHER NECK
GFS 850mb vorticity shows lots of spin at 60 hrs. Not to scare ppl, but this is the 4th or 5th run that detected this, but the models don't develop the surface pressures to match the vorticity at the 850mb level.
The nice thing is that the ATL/GOMEX's potential for class 5s are winding down a bit. Especially when compared to the W PAC.
Semper Fi!
That thing down by the Yucatan flooded me out yesterday. More rain in one day than I have seen all year long here in south florida
LSU seems to have a hard time with day games in that stadium as well. No to mention "The 'Ol Ball Coach" will have the boys ready to go!
And just to keep this post on the up and up, seems the GFS is forecasting shear to reduce over the next 4 days for that area off the E coast.
LOL..Okay..Ill serve if THAT happens.
Look at the vertical instability in the Caribbean.
It is a Good day that we are not cleaning up after this thing that could have been really bad.... I was thinking the same thing ("fishing") just will have a rain coat ready though...LOL
Posted By: TampaSpin at 9:55 AM CDT on September 22, 2007.
Posted By: Patrap at 10:52 AM EDT on September 22, 2007.
My futher son-in-law has a Cock jersey on today. Any piece of advice.....lol
Id wear a Hard-hat up there If I were Him
I didn't make any comment about intensity, what I did say is that it could move very quickly. The models that have picked it up, have it making landfall as soon as 60 hours. That being said, it could be a dud like Depression 10. :)
Kinda early though, but with current conditions.
If 94L hit TX,La, will it go to the south-east for the drought areas. And/or will it go to the midwest U.S?
In weather just like sports anything can happen!
LOL when it comes to the SEC anyway....
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