TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana
Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.
Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.
Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.
This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.
I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I am still looking at the wave south of CV islands...looking like it has a pretty good punch in there and wanting to go to the gym to work out.. :-P
lets see what it can do.... this year systems have liked to fool around and look great then just commit suicide.
Puerto Rico and virgin islands.
I just looked at the Navy NOGAPS model 12z run and it continues to develop the CV wave. It appear to have it stronger than the previous run.
9 years that we had powerful hurricane Georges in
Puerto Rico and virgin islands.
my God...I forgot....9 years it has been!? Georges rip right across my island- St Kitts on 19/20 September 1998...one very frightening storm.
my youngest was born a Hurricane David baby on August 30 1979 (our watches went up as she was born)..
It could be designed invest later today or tomorrow then a TD monday.
Might see the westerlies set up along 20N after that. 30-50kts per the GFS.
Similar to the conditions Ingrid encountered.
CV wave looks good. Shear may not be much of a factor for 5-6 days.
Might see the westerlies set up along 20N after that. 30-50kts per the GFS.
Similar to the conditions Ingrid encountered.
I heard an anticyclone could develop with the system, which could help with the shear
Updated imagery. I'm surprised its not an invest yet.
If it keeps organizing at this rate I wouldnt be surprised to see a TD in the next 24-36hrs
GFS, NOGAPS, and WRF all forecast the development of an anticyclone over the CV system...good model agreement there.
devasted Guadeloupe Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as a strong cat 3/4 storm. For me Hugo is one of the 15 greatest hurricanes since 1950 to nowadays.
thankfully
i know its completely too far out to know, this hasnt even formed yet so its impossible to know... but the models seem to want it to be a fish storm, or atleast miss us here in the islands.
thankfully
Track is another issue but it would be nice if its a fish storm.
48 HOUR FORECAST You can see that the high over centered over the ne is building southeasterly. But, you can also the see the trough of low pressure moving se'ly across the mid-west. 94L is already showing (imo) some trough association and a northerly trend I believe is taking place. As the trough over the mid-west keeps moving se, and 94L strengthens, I do believe it's possible to influence its path in a more ne'ly direction. We'll see.
94L's latest seems to be actually moving a bit more north than wnw.
Eww! Bad day in LSU Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA. It's pouring! I feel bad for the tailgaters, TD 10 has it in for them.
Good, good, we'll take all the help we can get!
456 - does that mean that the anti cyclone that is forecast will do more to help develop the system than to disrupt it?
Its a fact that an upper anticyclone helps establish outflow which promotes convergence and help develop the storm. A very large one was over Ernesto in 2006. Also an upper anticyclone is feature present on most hurricanes just like the eye, rainbands, CDO, etc.
right Extreme236 it formed with in the ITCZ.
Ah, so thats why its so low in latitude
1980:Allen(cat 3 130 950 mb)
1989:Hugo(cat 4 140 mph 941 mb)
1995:Luis(135 mph 942 mb the largest and slowest)
1998:Georges(strong cat 4 then cat 3 966 mb)
2007:Dean(strong cat 2 965 mb)
Strange,the gap is 3,6 or 9 years...Possible the CV storm is next.
not a fish
not a wish
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