TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana
Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.
Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.
Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.
This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.
I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.
Jeff Masters
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not a fish
not a wish
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.9 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.8 °F
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.83 in
Wind Speed (WSPD): 14.0 kts
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 20 deg)
I wish i worked for RAMSDIS so i could get access to that imagery...
lol, it would be nice to have access the all that imagery
yea it doesn't make sense oh well. On the old RAMSDIS you couldn't see anything at all now they give you a little picture LOL.
true
Anyone one got a image of "lost Ingrid"?
I think ingrid is gone for good
Posted By: NorthxCakalaky at 7:37 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.
Anyone one got a image of "lost Ingrid"?
I think ingrid is gone for good
everyone stop talking about it> has it greenland?
Much thanks.
Dr. Mandeli thank you. What confuses me is why this storm will cross the entire gulf and not ramp up to stronger than a TS. Aren't the warm waters suppose to build up these storms?
Well, there is a question of how strong exactly the shear wil be and how bad the SAL/dry air is for this system
SAL?
SAL= saharan air layer
Basically, a type of dust that inhibits the development of convection, although stronger systems seem to have more resistance to it
Updated..System approaching DMAX
Isnt dmax the time shortly before sunrise? what time is it near cape verde?
Posted By: Weather456 at 7:59 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.
Updated..System approaching DMAX
Isnt dmax the time shortly before sunrise? what time is it near cape verde?
oops...i jumped that one a little too earlier...its sunset in the CV islands..DMAX about 12 hrs from now.
BBL
Posted By: Weather456 at 7:59 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.
Updated..System approaching DMAX
Isnt dmax the time shortly before sunrise? what time is it near cape verde?
Night just fell over the wave. And yes Diurnal max is before sunrise.
NOUS42 KNHC 221400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SAT 22 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-120
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 23/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 23/1630Z
D. 24.0N 91.0W
E. 23/1600Z TO 23/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO
A. 24/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0211A CYCLONE
C. 24/0500Z
D. 26.0N 93.0W
E. 24/0500Z TO 24/1300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....BEGIN 3 HRLY FIXES 24/1500Z IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
(image)
Skip the invest, this already looks like a depression!
5:30 TWO will be interesting, although I bet they'll say something like "some development is possible over the next few days".
by the way? i think systems can form that low, remember ivan?
Will be interesting to see what the NHC has to say at 5:30.
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