TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana
Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.
Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.
Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.
This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.
I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Intensity opinions anyone?
Hey Groundman u have mail.
Its approx 700 miles across the GOM to Houston. For this to travel that far in 24 hours it would be moving around 29 MPH I personally do not see it moving that fast.
Thats from the Doc himself, im not making that stuff up!!!
Why not?
Does anyone know the forecast for shear in the W. GOM for the next few days?
I too was surprised about the Monday landfall especially if it tracks to the Northern Gulf. All the models show it to be much slower except maybe the BAMM
These are the intensity versions of the spaghetti models, so these graphics include many more models then just the GFS (also known as AVNO) HWRF, and GFDL.
I'd discount the SHIPS as it dosn't even take land into account as proximity to the Yucatan will likely slow down or prevent development until this is well into the Gulf. So, yes, none of the reliable models currently take this into hurricane strength but some do take it pretty close.
Thats from the Doc himself, im not making that stuff up!!!
He's talking about the 12z run of the SHIPS. The 18z SHIPS takes this into Cat 1 status; the Doctor hasn't updated his blog yet.
Very idealistic. Hang here for a short while and you'll discover the usefulness of the "ignore" button.
"The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system. Thats from the Doc himself, im not making that stuff up!!!"
I don't care who that "forecast" was from because the OFFICIAL forecast for Port Aransas, TX on Mon is ZERO percent chance of rain on Mon and 30% on Tue.
That is HARDLY "heavy rains Mon and Tue".
This guy must be wishcasting hype machine also.
That was a quote...somebody else posted that comment.
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Blub........a blob that has no chance of making landfall in the US. Most blubs wind up eventually bringing rains to golfers in Scotland.
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