95L fizzles; Sierras brace for 5-10 feet of snow
A non-tropical low pressure system dubbed Invest 95L, near 27N 38W, way out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, has gotten less organized since yesterday. The storm cut off from the jet stream and acquired some subtropical characteristics yesterday, as it sat nearly stationary over waters of 22-23° C. However, satellite imagery shows fewer heavy thunderstorms than yesterday, and the storm has a more extratropical appearance as it interacts with a cold front to its north.
This evening's QuikSCAT pass showed winds up to 50 mph on the west side of 95L. Wind shear is about 30 knots over 95L, and this shear is expected to be 20-40 knots for the next two days. This is probably too high to allow 95L to develop into a subtropical storm, and wind shear is forecast to grow stronger as the storm begins moving west-southwest on Tuesday. By Thursday, a trough of low pressure is expected to recurve 95L northeastward, and the storm is not expected to affect any land areas.
Huge blizzard expected in the California Sierras
One of the most severe blizzards of the past 50 years is expected to affect California's Sierra Mountains beginning Thursday night, January 3. A powerful low pressure system will establish itself off the coast of Oregon, and bring a series of heavy snow events with blizzard conditions to the Sierras through Monday. Five to ten feet of snow are possible in the high mountains. Travel will be nearly impossible in the high country next weekend, with white-out conditions and wind gusts near hurricane strength. This is going to be a great storm for filling the reservoirs that supply the northern half of the state with its water. Reservoirs should be at full capacity next summer, easing fears of a significant water shortage. Last winter's snows failed to fill the reservoirs to even 50% of capacity.
Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for December 30 for Georgia. Atlanta got one of its heaviest rains of the year today.
Happy New Year! I'll be back January 2 to talk about the Georgia drought. Heavy rains that fell today may have been just enough to keep Atlanta from setting a record for its driest year since record keeping began in 1930.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 — Blog Index
Happy New Year to you and your staff.
before a long winter nap
Thank you and staff, for what you do here! It truely means alot to many here!!
=============================================
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance [1000 hPa] located near 18.3S 42.0E or 1420 kms west-northwest of the coast of Reunion had 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. The disturbance is reported as quasi-stationary
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0
Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 19.2S 41.9E 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 20.3S 41.7E 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropicale)
Additional Information
========================
Environment is still favorable, so intensification is forecast. During Jan 01, 2008, an upper level trough is forecast to build southwestward of the system. This should enhance poleward outflow and consequently improve the upper level divergence. That is why intensification rate is a little stronger than climatology. This system could be close to Intense Tropical Cyclone stage (90 knots) at the end of the forecast period.
The track should progressively take a more southerly motion still at low speed today before accelerating. During Jan 2nd 2008 a subtropical ridge is moving away in the southern Mozambique Channel.
NWP model run has slightly moved thier tracks eastward so that is the case of the presen guidance that is close to the ECMWF solution.
30/2330 UTC 26.9N 34.9W T1.5/1.5 95L -- Atlantic Ocean
by the way how march is 10ft of snow in "
=============================================
At 0000 UTC Tropical Low [994 hPa] located near 8.0S 97.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots and is moving east at 8 knots.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles in northern quadrants
Happy New Year to all!
Adrian's Hurricane Archives
More to come.
I was just watching some satellites pics of Isabel in 2003 while it passed north of PR wow big system PR was lucky it didnt passed through here if it did it would have being one day landfall another sunny and calm(the eye) and the other one the second half lol
AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles of the centre.
FORECAST
Maximum winds to 50 knots near the centre decreasing to 35 knots by 0000 UTC 01January.
Storm Force Winds within 35 nautical miles of centre until 0600 UTC 31December with very rough to high seas and moderate to heavy swell.
Gale Force Winds within 120 nautical miles of centre with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.
Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS - 18.8S 111.0E 35 knots [CAT 1]
48 HRS - 19.6S 109.4E 30 knots [Tropical Low]
umm looks like the remains of 95L could clash with the cold front and generate some active weather around the islands
the mets said the eye was 60 n.m.in cat-5-isabel,and they said the low that became isabel came from the red sea region.
And as for 95L and the 2007 hurricane season---nothing more to say than this :)
Link
The only thing missing from this skit is a crow . . . lol
track mark
35w/27.5n
36w/26.9n
37w/26.7n
38w/26.3n
39w/26.1n
40w/25.9n
41w/25.8n 01/01/08 GMT
....stop....
yep here is the isabel loop Link
and how can i tell that is moving west well I think I saw a little turn in sat imagery
sorry for not answering sooner was busy doing other stuff =P
wow
I was just watching some satellites pics of Isabel in 2003 while it passed north of PR wow big system PR was lucky it didnt passed through here if it did it would have being one day landfall another sunny and calm(the eye) and the other one the second half lol
My avatar is Hurricane Isabel on Sept. 12. 2003. I think this is one of the most beautiful hurricanes imaged since we started the satellite era. If u click on my avatar, you will be able to see the clarity and regularity of Isabel's eye. This is an astounding sight.
Viewing: 1 - 51
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 — Blog Index