I'll echo the statement of Hurricane Specialist Lixion Avilla in the 11 am Hurricane Bertha discussion: "After a week or so...I am running out of things to say about Bertha." Hurricane Bertha has slowed to crawl, and remains in no hurry to recurve out to sea. The storm continues its rather sloppy appearance on satellite loops, thanks to the fact that the inner eyewall dissolved, leaving a new, much larger eye. Bertha's structure is sufficiently sloppy that significant intensification is not likely, despite the presence of wind shear less than 10 knots and water temperatures of 27.5°C. Shear is forecast to remain below 10 knots until Monday morning, when it should rise to 20 knots. At that time, Bertha should be over 26°C water, and will probably weaken to tropical storm strength. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters will make their second flight into Bertha this afternoon to check on the storm's strength. The outer spiral bands of Bertha are starting to affect Bermuda (see links below), and the storm is now visible on Bermuda radar.
Links to follow:
Bermuda radar
Current weather at Bermuda
Bermuda WebCam
_
Figure 1. Microwave image of Bertha from 5:45 GMT 7/12/2008 showing the vary large eye. Image credit: Navy Research Lab.
High surf of 9-15 feet is already affecting Bermuda, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. There is about a 61% chance the island will experience sustained winds of tropical storm force (40 mph), according to the latest tropical storm wind probability forecast by NHC. Given the very weak steering currents predicted to affect Bertha through Monday, the storm could easily approach closer to the island than the current official forecast. None of the computer models currently foresee that hurricane force winds will impact the island, and I don't expect this will happen.
Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic. The models are more scattered in their prediction of a tropical depression forming between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands 4-7 days from now. One model, the ECMWF, has dropped its forecast of a depression forming, and the two remaining models disagree on just when such a depression might form. There are not any impressive tropical waves near the coast of Africa presently, so I'm currently dubious of the model predictions of a Cape Verdes-type tropical storm forming next week.
I'll post an update Sunday morning.
Jeff Masters
Hurricane Bertha weather in Bermuda on Friday July 11th, 2008
As we made our into the outer edges of the storm, the clouds began to thicken up and the seas began to get rougher
Hurricane Bertha 2008 - 6 (
LRandyB)
Looking out the window as we approach the outer eyewall, the banding of the clouds is obvious.
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From 03?
;)
I have now.
Crownweather
Absolutely Weather456! By the way, not to get too ahead of myself here or anything like that, but is this what awaits us as we head into August and September? Also, do you think that it's already a little bit to late to make those final hurricane preparation plans or not quite yet? Taking into consideration that we are rapidly getting into the most dangerous part of the season.
JFV, this is the best time to prepare, now that nothing is brewing. It is never too late considering we have August and September to go.
OK ...thanks.
LMAO. JFV, my friend, do you get out much?
It's possible.
I sure hope you have it better than my family did in the panhandle. My Dad's house was completely overwashed by the storm surge from Opal. My brother's house was pretty much leveled by Ivan - He couldn't stand it any more and moved to Eagle Creek - ALASKA!!!
And your Brother -- Alaska -- No way for me, Ohio's winter was too bad for me.
I'm with you, I can't handle all that cold, or the darkness!! Sounds like you are ready, me too!!! Just hope it doesn't happen, the storms just kill my business.
Later,
P-Chuck
because you dont understand my handle. its ok buddy. your a cool dude.
Does anyone have any recent radar images of 94l?
Thanks for the Heads up on that one Tampa, now I'm going to break out the tequila and meet up with Press. for an early morn. belt.
Too much, too soon!!!! LOL!!
BBL - gotta do laundry :(
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 220 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS MOVES SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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