Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Nothing new with Bertha
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:14 PM GMT on July 12, 2008 +2
I'll echo the statement of Hurricane Specialist Lixion Avilla in the 11 am Hurricane Bertha discussion: "After a week or so...I am running out of things to say about Bertha." Hurricane Bertha has slowed to crawl, and remains in no hurry to recurve out to sea. The storm continues its rather sloppy appearance on satellite loops, thanks to the fact that the inner eyewall dissolved, leaving a new, much larger eye. Bertha's structure is sufficiently sloppy that significant intensification is not likely, despite the presence of wind shear less than 10 knots and water temperatures of 27.5°C. Shear is forecast to remain below 10 knots until Monday morning, when it should rise to 20 knots. At that time, Bertha should be over 26°C water, and will probably weaken to tropical storm strength. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters will make their second flight into Bertha this afternoon to check on the storm's strength. The outer spiral bands of Bertha are starting to affect Bermuda (see links below), and the storm is now visible on Bermuda radar.

Links to follow:
Bermuda radar
Current weather at Bermuda
Bermuda WebCam

_
Figure 1. Microwave image of Bertha from 5:45 GMT 7/12/2008 showing the vary large eye. Image credit: Navy Research Lab.

High surf of 9-15 feet is already affecting Bermuda, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. There is about a 61% chance the island will experience sustained winds of tropical storm force (40 mph), according to the latest tropical storm wind probability forecast by NHC. Given the very weak steering currents predicted to affect Bertha through Monday, the storm could easily approach closer to the island than the current official forecast. None of the computer models currently foresee that hurricane force winds will impact the island, and I don't expect this will happen.

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic. The models are more scattered in their prediction of a tropical depression forming between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands 4-7 days from now. One model, the ECMWF, has dropped its forecast of a depression forming, and the two remaining models disagree on just when such a depression might form. There are not any impressive tropical waves near the coast of Africa presently, so I'm currently dubious of the model predictions of a Cape Verdes-type tropical storm forming next week.

I'll post an update Sunday morning.
Jeff Masters
South Shore Bermuda (denmar)
Hurricane Bertha weather in Bermuda on Friday July 11th, 2008
South Shore Bermuda
Hurricane Bertha 2008 (LRandyB)
As we made our into the outer edges of the storm, the clouds began to thicken up and the seas began to get rougher
Hurricane Bertha 2008
Hurricane Bertha 2008 - 6 (LRandyB)
Looking out the window as we approach the outer eyewall, the banding of the clouds is obvious.
Hurricane Bertha 2008 - 6
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Reader Comments
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1051. IKE 1:04 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
1046...JFV...where do you get that from?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070
1052. FLWeatherFreak91 1:04 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3516
1053. yankeerebel 1:05 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
On a brighter note, a few more weeks till football season. Sorry Aubies but can't help myself...ROLL TIDE!!
1054. aubiesgirl 1:06 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
1049 Eglin AFB.
1057. aubiesgirl 1:07 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
1053 fooey fooey .blah blah yuck..you should wash your mouth out..lol
1058. IKE 1:07 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
Quoting JFV:
from Rob, guys!


From 03?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070
1059. PanhandleChuck 1:07 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
1054. Are you or your significant other in the military?
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1189
1060. txalwaysprepared 1:07 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
1053. I know you didn't just say ROLLTIDE!!

;)
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642
1061. IKE 1:07 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
Quoting JFV:
Have you guys read it yet?


I have now.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070
1062. aubiesgirl 1:08 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
spouse is
1063. yankeerebel 1:08 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
lol
1064. presslord 1:08 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
aqua....920....AAAAARRRRGGGHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10407
1065. nrtiwlnvragn 1:09 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
Quoting IKE:
1046...JFV...where do you get that from?


Crownweather
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 9095
1066. PanhandleChuck 1:09 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
1062. Cool --- It's amazing how much land Eglin takes up.
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1189
1067. Cavin Rawlins 1:09 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
1020. JFV 8:49 AM AST on July 13, 2008
Absolutely Weather456! By the way, not to get too ahead of myself here or anything like that, but is this what awaits us as we head into August and September? Also, do you think that it's already a little bit to late to make those final hurricane preparation plans or not quite yet? Taking into consideration that we are rapidly getting into the most dangerous part of the season.


JFV, this is the best time to prepare, now that nothing is brewing. It is never too late considering we have August and September to go.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1068. txalwaysprepared 1:10 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
yankeerebel... I should have added... GEAUX TIGERS!
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642
1069. BahaHurican 1:10 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
Morning everyone. I see two of the three areas being booted about as potential invests are on the TC potential map this morning. I have to admit the CATL wave looks a lot more impressive this morning. I guess the rest of July is fated to be fairly active. Even if only one of these makes it to TS status, that will give us THREE named systems before the beginning of August . . .
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17961
1070. aubiesgirl 1:10 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
1066..yea that's why there's housing shortage round here..lol
1072. IKE 1:10 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Quoting IKE:
1046...JFV...where do you get that from?


Crownweather


OK ...thanks.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070
1073. HurricaneMaryJane 1:10 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
Quoting JFV:
I'm blushing Ma'am!


LMAO. JFV, my friend, do you get out much?
1074. aubiesgirl 1:11 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
1068...oh no it's gettin worse...actually I like lsu..cute lil kitty cats...lol
1075. PanhandleChuck 1:12 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
1070. LOL --- well I'm outta here for now, see you all later
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1189
1077. IKE 1:12 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
Quoting JFV:
So what do you think about the Florida impact scenerio that rob mentioned for 94L, is it possible or not IKE?


It's possible.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070
1078. yankeerebel 1:12 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
evidently, I'm not the only one ready for football to fire up
1079. InTheCone 1:12 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
PanHandleChuck -

I sure hope you have it better than my family did in the panhandle. My Dad's house was completely overwashed by the storm surge from Opal. My brother's house was pretty much leveled by Ivan - He couldn't stand it any more and moved to Eagle Creek - ALASKA!!!
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1979
1080. aubiesgirl 1:13 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
1078 clearly..lol..I can't wait
1082. txalwaysprepared 1:13 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
1074. LOL yes.. we went through this last year. Cute little kitties my butt ;)
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642
1083. aubiesgirl 1:14 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
1082......I"m just sayin..lol
1084. presslord 1:16 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
Whatever that is offshore not withstanding...it's a beautiful morning in the SC Lowcountry....
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10407
1085. PanhandleChuck 1:15 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
1079. My house was built in 06 outta brick --- I know that doesn't mean that it is storm proof, but I think it will survive a Cat 3 or lower with minimal damage.

And your Brother -- Alaska -- No way for me, Ohio's winter was too bad for me.
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1189
1086. aubiesgirl 1:16 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
1085 what part of OHIO..go bucks!@!!
1087. InTheCone 1:18 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
1085.

I'm with you, I can't handle all that cold, or the darkness!! Sounds like you are ready, me too!!! Just hope it doesn't happen, the storms just kill my business.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1979
1088. PanhandleChuck 1:18 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
PS --- Before I go, the Buckeyes will beat whichever SEC team it faces in the BCS this year. (LOL that's what I said last year).

Later,

P-Chuck
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1189
1089. TampaSpin 1:19 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
Look what i just found in the BOC.....dam spins everywhere......wow! It appears a SL is trying to form at 20N 95W in the BOC.

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767
1090. aubiesgirl 1:19 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
1088 roflmao...awww bless his heart!
1091. PanhandleChuck 1:19 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
1086. Akron
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1189
1092. aubiesgirl 1:20 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
ohok..husband is from Enon right outside of Fairborn and Beavercreek
1094. yankeerebel 1:21 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
1085. I hear ya, I'm originally from Buffalo, Ny and I've been living in Mobile, Al for almost three years now. Couldn't handle the cold. Now if it gets under 60 I'm wearin a jacket.
1096. HurricaneMaryJane 1:22 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
Quoting JFV:
24/7, between work and school, why you asked Ma'am?


because you dont understand my handle. its ok buddy. your a cool dude.

Does anyone have any recent radar images of 94l?
1098. InTheCone 1:23 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
1089.

Thanks for the Heads up on that one Tampa, now I'm going to break out the tequila and meet up with Press. for an early morn. belt.

Too much, too soon!!!! LOL!!

BBL - gotta do laundry :(
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1979
1100. txalwaysprepared 1:23 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
1088. LOL.. not a good track record so far!
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642
1101. Tazmanian 1:23 PM GMT on July 13, 2008    
ABNT20 KNHC 131145
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 220 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS MOVES SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111632

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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