I'll echo the statement of Hurricane Specialist Lixion Avilla in the 11 am Hurricane Bertha discussion: "After a week or so...I am running out of things to say about Bertha." Hurricane Bertha has slowed to crawl, and remains in no hurry to recurve out to sea. The storm continues its rather sloppy appearance on satellite loops, thanks to the fact that the inner eyewall dissolved, leaving a new, much larger eye. Bertha's structure is sufficiently sloppy that significant intensification is not likely, despite the presence of wind shear less than 10 knots and water temperatures of 27.5°C. Shear is forecast to remain below 10 knots until Monday morning, when it should rise to 20 knots. At that time, Bertha should be over 26°C water, and will probably weaken to tropical storm strength. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters will make their second flight into Bertha this afternoon to check on the storm's strength. The outer spiral bands of Bertha are starting to affect Bermuda (see links below), and the storm is now visible on Bermuda radar.
Links to follow:
Bermuda radar
Current weather at Bermuda
Bermuda WebCam
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Figure 1. Microwave image of Bertha from 5:45 GMT 7/12/2008 showing the vary large eye. Image credit: Navy Research Lab.
High surf of 9-15 feet is already affecting Bermuda, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. There is about a 61% chance the island will experience sustained winds of tropical storm force (40 mph), according to the latest tropical storm wind probability forecast by NHC. Given the very weak steering currents predicted to affect Bertha through Monday, the storm could easily approach closer to the island than the current official forecast. None of the computer models currently foresee that hurricane force winds will impact the island, and I don't expect this will happen.
Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic. The models are more scattered in their prediction of a tropical depression forming between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands 4-7 days from now. One model, the ECMWF, has dropped its forecast of a depression forming, and the two remaining models disagree on just when such a depression might form. There are not any impressive tropical waves near the coast of Africa presently, so I'm currently dubious of the model predictions of a Cape Verdes-type tropical storm forming next week.
I'll post an update Sunday morning.
Jeff Masters
Hurricane Bertha weather in Bermuda on Friday July 11th, 2008
As we made our into the outer edges of the storm, the clouds began to thicken up and the seas began to get rougher
Hurricane Bertha 2008 - 6 (
LRandyB)
Looking out the window as we approach the outer eyewall, the banding of the clouds is obvious.
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I guess you would say that your southerly counterpart is the 'woosy' who backed away geographically from the ocean....? Bc I think so lol
So right i live just south of that area that just sticks out.
Maybe they blocked you.... that's why emailing them would be a good method of contact.
You can get its ouput HERE.
Bertha is dying a slow death.
Freak, i don't think i am blocked by anyone....but i did take you off my very small list if bloggers that i have a relationship with i thought....i send an email to those people that are not currently signed on to let them know of an updated. You are no longer on my list......thank you and please put me on your ignor list.
Tim
TRACK MARK
8.9N/37.2W
9.1N/37.8W
10.2N/38.2W
10.8N/38.7W
11.1N/39.1W
***STOP***
so the invest is now a depression?
03L? Did I miss something?
I wouldn't be surprised to see a Hurricane, wouldn't be the first one of the year.
JFV - I just have a question for you. With every system that has developed, why do you constantly ask for predictions as to potential threats to Florida or regarding intensity when the system is a couple thousand miles away from impacting any land? As has been stated time and time again, we will have to wait for this to actually organize and develop into a bonafide tropical system before questions like that can even warrant a response.
It seems like you get too excited over each tropical system that develops. We have abundant time to watch this system, so sit back, relax, and enjoy the show until it comes time when anyone may have to start getting concerned about it.
typo
Tropical Cyclone Warning
21:00 PM JST July 13 2008
==========================================
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located near 20.1N 126.4E has 10 minutes sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 20.3N 125.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
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93W is reported as a 30 knots depression now, if anyone cares =P
I fought an 18 hour battle here for the respect of Mr. Lightbown. I got slammed, recieved wu-mail death threats, and got drug thru the mud. I would do it all over again for him.
Yes, PLEASE provide reference to "other sites" as Mr. Lightbown has worked very hard over the years to provide us with excellent updates.
Thank you for understanding of other's hard work.
its not a depression, it will take a few days for that to happen
jfv I have to agree with cchs, we need to take things one step at a time, we like your enthusiasm but you have to realize that the questions you ask are very difficult for even the smartest people on here to answer. Just sit back and relax a bit and analyze what is being said on here before you come out with a question
JFV your my friend and i agree with this ....just relax.....
I'm assuming the 11 a.m. on Bertha / Elida is out . . .
Bertha at 65 MPH,
Also on I94, it appears that circulation has started at 7N 35 W. This could be a massive storm if everything pulls together.
I don't know if I missed something but it's probably because you asked them questions every 5 seconds. Don't sweat it though, JFV, they are just dudes that you will never meet, I don't know why you care so much. Just gotta keep on keepin' on. (Que the youtube music video post)
This thing seems like it will continue West for 24-36 hours and then head WNW...is this the consensus?
in & out
I don't see the UKMET developing anything, though it is taking the vorticity associated with the low pressure center towards the Leeward islands.
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The UKMET did at one point Friday... it has not appear since.
Something that has always wondered me. When the paper prints a picture of a big pot burn how come the Deputies are always standing upwind? Any fool ever burned off his pea patch knows that's the wrong side. Upwind's for hunting, downwind's for burning. Any fool who's Moma taught him to come in out of the rain knows that.
Link
LINK: Jul 11, 1700 UTC
GOES-12 Atlantic Ocean View (Updated ~3 hours) Link
GOES-12 Channel 4 (IR) GOES-12 Channel 3 (WV) GOES-12 Low Cloud Product
Easy
1232. Thanks TS!
1235. Philliesrock ( i disagree with your handle lol) Thank you so much for the info.
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