I'll echo the statement of Hurricane Specialist Lixion Avilla in the 11 am Hurricane Bertha discussion: "After a week or so...I am running out of things to say about Bertha." Hurricane Bertha has slowed to crawl, and remains in no hurry to recurve out to sea. The storm continues its rather sloppy appearance on satellite loops, thanks to the fact that the inner eyewall dissolved, leaving a new, much larger eye. Bertha's structure is sufficiently sloppy that significant intensification is not likely, despite the presence of wind shear less than 10 knots and water temperatures of 27.5°C. Shear is forecast to remain below 10 knots until Monday morning, when it should rise to 20 knots. At that time, Bertha should be over 26°C water, and will probably weaken to tropical storm strength. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters will make their second flight into Bertha this afternoon to check on the storm's strength. The outer spiral bands of Bertha are starting to affect Bermuda (see links below), and the storm is now visible on Bermuda radar.
Links to follow:
Bermuda radar
Current weather at Bermuda
Bermuda WebCam
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Figure 1. Microwave image of Bertha from 5:45 GMT 7/12/2008 showing the vary large eye. Image credit: Navy Research Lab.
High surf of 9-15 feet is already affecting Bermuda, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. There is about a 61% chance the island will experience sustained winds of tropical storm force (40 mph), according to the latest tropical storm wind probability forecast by NHC. Given the very weak steering currents predicted to affect Bertha through Monday, the storm could easily approach closer to the island than the current official forecast. None of the computer models currently foresee that hurricane force winds will impact the island, and I don't expect this will happen.
Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic. The models are more scattered in their prediction of a tropical depression forming between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands 4-7 days from now. One model, the ECMWF, has dropped its forecast of a depression forming, and the two remaining models disagree on just when such a depression might form. There are not any impressive tropical waves near the coast of Africa presently, so I'm currently dubious of the model predictions of a Cape Verdes-type tropical storm forming next week.
I'll post an update Sunday morning.
Jeff Masters
Hurricane Bertha weather in Bermuda on Friday July 11th, 2008
As we made our into the outer edges of the storm, the clouds began to thicken up and the seas began to get rougher
Hurricane Bertha 2008 - 6 (
LRandyB)
Looking out the window as we approach the outer eyewall, the banding of the clouds is obvious.
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IS that an eye forming?
it appears so, that is the one in the Pacific right?
looks like bertha is trying to wrap herself up a little bit in the last few frames
I am off -- BBL tonight I hope !!
I think so.
I have to say I'm impressed to see how Bertha still clings to hurricane status although she looks pretty ragged on satellite imagery. Bertha has now achieved an ACE of 17.2, only a bit lower than Felix last year (18.03) which was a Cat.5! If she hangs on a bit longer she'll beat him ACE-wise *lol*
Who would have thought last weekend that she's still around this weekend? I have to admit that I didn't expect her to survive so long.
No eye, just looks like it on those images. Rather, some convection died down near the center and is re-intensifying now. Definately the strongest convection in the tropical western hemesphere right now. The wave out in the central atlantic appears to have lost almost all of its convection now.
I have to admit that I didn't expect her to survive so long.
Quite the understatement there!
She will not surrender 'til the end!
reminds me of one of the discussions when she formed
Arthur-trans gender storm
Bertha-suicide storm???
Nah...she'll get her act together and be on her way...i think
=) haha
Welcome to the Blog!!!
i gotta run.
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