Bertha turns to the east, Invest 94L still there
Tropical Storm Bertha has finally turned toward the east at 6 mph and is now packing maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and her central pressure has ticked up to 996 mb. A general track to the east is expected to continue for the next few days with slight strengthening possible.
Bertha - Watches and Warnings
Bertha is starting to look pretty ragged on satellite imagery. Her circulation is becoming elongated due to synoptic steering patterns, but shear over the center of circulation remains low. Deep convection is limited but sufficient to maintain intensity at this time.
Bertha - Infrared satellite
As Bertha moves to the east, large meanders are expected in her track. Additionally, there is slightly warmer water ahead of the storm so slight strengthening is possible. Bertha is still not expected to be a threat to land of the next week. Shipping interests should still monitor the storm as there is a huge amount of divergence in track forecasts beyond 72 hours.
Click for full size model imagery:
Bertha - Track Forecast
Bertha - Wind Speed Forecast
The wave that has been traveling across the Atlantic still does not look that well organized, but convection has increased from yesterday. Right now I give the system a roughly 40% chance of development. Convection has finally started to build near the center of circulation, but has not been sustained enough to create a closed circulation. We will continue to monitor the system for signs of development.
Invest 94L - Infrared satellite
Model forecasts still bring this area of interest over the eastern Caribbean, which is often not favorable for tropical development. None of the models go crazy with this system, but some do still show signs of development.
Click for full size model imagery:
Invest 94L - Track Forecast
Invest 94L - Intensity Forecast
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, there is an area of thunderstorms over the northeast Gulf of Mexico that has a slight chance of reaching tropical depression status before arriving over Florida. No threat is expected from this system and it could bring beneficial rains to the northern Florida area.
Area of storms approaching Florida
Writing for Jeff Masters for the week, Bryan Woods
Reader Comments
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Get your camera ready presslord, I have a feeling this is going to be a little more than an invest when it does arrive on your porch! We're all watching the Caribbean and this sneaks across Florida into the Gulf Stream, go figure!
Hadn't heard of that factor before...
What I had heard of that made the eastern Caribbean the graveyard for developing systems are twofold.
1. The trade winds are typically stronger in this region (a kind of funnel effect) leading to higher shear than in the central Atlantic or the Western Caribbean.
2. The above trade winds lead to lower SSTs/lower TCHP
Climatological shear bears this out a bit...
The "flash" looks larger than a single oil rig flare...Don't have a clue (Since it looks to be in a jungle area, it reminds me of the explosion in Predator 1 when the alien self destructed in front of Ahhnold at the end of the movie)....Oh Well
The research I did showed that in the last 30 years ( from 2007 ) only 6 or 7 TD's were ever classified between 63 and 73 West and of that number 4 or 5 were low pressures that spun up on the tail end of fronts in Oct and Nov. That meant that there had been only a couple that had developed from Easterly waves over a 30 year period.
I did not go back further than that as it took a lot of time.
is it me or 94L is getting bigger cloudtops alot colder hmmm if that is under the coc(which is likely is) its a td
It's not that easy....It needs to be organized with heavy consolidated convection and a evident closed circulation.
LOL! You mean 96L isn't rapidly strengthening!?!? Presslord will be dissappointed, he has the camera & bourbon ready!
That is probably the sun reflecting off the area marshes. Notice it only showed in the visible pics. Also, if you look close you will see the sun's reflection in the waters just north of the coast line as it transitions from east to west.
Recon is out surveying 94L and by what I can tell it looks like a possible COC has been found but I'm not saying either way . . .
if you look at this loop you can see the flash as the sunshine moves over..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html
when do we get the GDFL for invest 96?
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