At about 0000Z on 0709, a new little TC formed at 5.75N 44.75W. It got fired up with deep convection (white on Dvorak) until 0700 when the deep convection minimized everywhere before dawn.
The convection also dropped because the ITCZ is about to advance north again across at least 35W to 60W - from the mid-Atlantic west to the northern shore of SA. This advance will pull the western ITCZ off of SA back into the ocean but will very likely leave it patchy.
The SAL descending upon this thin SW arc of the tropical moisture band is definitely weakened at its leading edge but there is a wedge of dry(ish) SAL with its point at 20N (Dvorak) extending back towards 30N. The ongoing jet extension across the NAtl to Spain/Morocco (IMO) will push the SAL south. If the still dry portion of the SAL comes down on the new little TC then it will likely dissipate. However, if the dry SAL gets softened below 15N as it is soaked on approach to the TC then the storm will survive.
I predict a northern push of the ITCZ to occur from now through dawn and it will leave the new TC bigger and better wrapped. IMO it wll precess in a ccw direction coming back around SE-E-NE-N-NW to between 8N48W & 9N49W. If it survives, the TC will pass very near 10N50W going WNW as it is now. The line push on the ITCZ has been happening a few times a day and the setup for that manoeuvre is pretty clearly happening - the convection that has died down pushed material N and NE all along the line.
The question is will the expected precess and northward push of the TC leave it wrapped well enough to withstand the descending SAL, especially after the SAL gets a shove from behind by the jet flattening out just above 30N. I think that the quality of the jet push will be damp and powerful. Although it may propel the SAL south into the western ITCZ, the SAL will be weakening quickly from behind.
By tomorrow afternoon this new little TC will be big enough to be obvious and well into the onslaught of the SAL. Time will tell.
PS. Last week's prediction of three named storms by today (in the Atl) fell flat with none. I will let this prediction ride another week. Three is still out on a limb, but I am confident there will be two new TCs soon. Also conditions are growing more favorable in the Atlantic as the SAL is weakened essentially everywhere west of Libya (0->10E).
