Daniel Strengthens/97e developing/Tropical wave moving through carribean
Wunderblog for 7-6-2012
Todays blog will cover multiple tropical systems.
1) Tropical Storm Daniel
2) 97E is well on its way to being named.
3) AOI in the Carribean has weakened.
According to the latest update, Tropical Daniel has intensified to a 70 MPH tropical storm with a minimum central pressure of 993 Millibars. The location is 14.8°N 114.9°W and Daniel is moving WNW at 12 mph. Daniel is moving towards very dry air and much cooler ocean temperatures. She probably does not have much longer to intesify into a hurricane. If she does become a hurricane it will more than likely be short lived. The only land that will be effected will be some pacific islands, Hawaii only has the potential for rain... If it can survive that far. My intensity forecast for Daniel is as follows.
12 hr: 75
24 hr: 75
36 hr: 65
48 hr: 55
60 hr: 40
72 hr: post-tropical
FIGURE ONE Water vapor image of Daniel, Fish?
FIGURE TWO Shows My forecast. It really is going to have a lot of time in the cold water before it gets anywhere close to hawaii and shouldnt be a problem.
97E is developing
In the Eastern Pacific we have another tropical system making a run at becoming a named storm. Invest 97E is moving in a westerly direction, and currently has a medium chance, 30% of becoming a tropical system in the next 48 hours. This is probably very smart for them to do even though it is looking very nice. The 06 z GFS as seen in Figure 3 doesnt even develop 97E for another 56 hours so by now about 50 hours out. 97E is in favorable conditions therefore, this should develop through out the next few days.
FIGURE THREE shows the 06z at 56 hours out. I had to color the isobars to show that you can see that there are two isobars completely closed, the low would be around 1005 Millibars
Carribean AOI is weakening
The Tropical Wave That was moving through the carribean is now weakening. The Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) has increased westerly shear creating little to no opportunity for convection to develop. Furthermore, the vorticity at 850 Millibars has almost completely vanished. However, as I said yesterday, this could be a potential rain marker for Florida (especially south Florida). (I dont think I made this very clear last discussion)I am not expecting this to develop though it may have a tiny window down the road.
Thank you for reading.
Any feedback is appreciated.