Tropical Depression Kammuri

Last Updated: 1575568800

Location:
12.2N 246.5E
Movement:
SSE at 9 mph
Wind:
30 mph
Pressure:
--

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000 

wdpn31 pgtw 051500
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/prognostic reasoning for tropical depression 29w (Kammuri) 
warning nr 040//
rmks/
1. For meteorologists.
2. 6 hour summary and analysis. 
   Tropical depression (td) 29w (Kammuri), located approximately
342 nm east-southeast of da nang, Vietnam, has tracked south-
southwestward at 09 knots over the past six hours. Animated enhanced 
infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts a fully exposed low level 
circulation center (LLCC) embedded in an extensive stratocumulus 
field associated with the cool, dry northeast surge event. The 
initial position is placed with high confidence based on the 
presence of a low level circulation apparent in a 051119z ssmis 
37ghz image. The initial intensity of 30 knots is based on the lack 
of convection and is hedged slightly higher than a rjtd Dvorak 
current intensity estimate of 1.5 (25kts). TD 29w is currently 
tracking south-southwestward within the flow of a northeast surge 
event. 
3. Forecast reasoning.
   A. There is no significant change to the forecast philosophy from 
the previous prognostic reasoning message.
   B. TD 29w will continue to track south-southwestward, weaken and 
dissipate by tau 24 due to the entrainment of cool, dry air from the 
northeast surge event, increasing vertical wind shear and decreasing 
sea surface temperatures. Winds in the South China Sea in excess of 
30kts will remain as tc 29w dissipates, however these winds will be 
associated with the northeast surge event, and not from TD 29w. 
Dynamic model guidance is in tight agreement for the remainder of 
the forecast period, with the exception of the UKMET ensemble which 
remains an eastern outlier. Therefore, there is high confidence in 
the jtwc forecast track.//
Nnnn

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Storm Track Statistics

Date Time Lat Lon Wind (mph) Pressure Storm Type
Dec 04 00 GMT 14.3 118.0 65 -- Tropical Storm
Dec 04 06 GMT 14.2 116.9 50 -- Tropical Storm
Dec 04 12 GMT 14.4 116.1 45 -- Tropical Storm
Dec 04 18 GMT 14.8 115.3 40 -- Tropical Storm
Dec 05 00 GMT 14.2 114.3 40 -- Tropical Storm
Dec 05 06 GMT 13.8 113.7 40 -- Tropical Storm
Dec 05 12 GMT 13.0 113.3 35 -- Tropical Depression
Dec 05 18 GMT 12.2 113.5 30 -- Tropical Depression

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