After Recent Severe Weather Outbreaks, Expect a Quieter Pattern Next Week

Jonathan Erdman
Published: April 17, 2019

A pattern change next week will give the nation a break from severe weather outbreaks.

Typical for April, it has been a busy stretch for severe weather recently. Last weekend, an outbreak of almost 700 reports of severe weather from Texas to the East Coast included at least 66 tornadoes in 10 states.

We're now in the midst of another multi-day severe weather episode that will strike some of the same areas ravaged on Palm Sunday weekend.

(FORECAST: Severe Thunderstorms Through Friday in the South, Midwest and East)

The primary reason for the recent severe weather is the orientation of the jet stream.

When a sharp, southward plunge of the jet pivots out of the West into a warm, humid Plains and East, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes can form.

The general jet-stream pattern that has given rise to widespread severe thunderstorms since Palm Sunday in the South and East.

By early next week, that pattern flips.

Instead of a southward jet plunge coming out of the West into the southern Plains, the jet will instead make a northward migration toward the northern Rockies and northern Plains.

In April, this configuration takes away the threat of widespread severe weather outbreaks.

The jet stream will bulge northward into the northern Rockies early to mid-next week, taking away the threat of a widespread severe weather outbreak.

This doesn't mean there won't be any severe thunderstorms.

At least a few thunderstorms may turn severe each day early next week in parts of the Plains.

(MAPS: National Day-by-Day Forecasts)

We just don't expect numerous severe storms through at least the first half of next week. The threat for tornadoes should be low.

This breather may not last long.

It's now the peak time of year for tornadoes and violent tornadoes in the United States.

Eventually, the jet stream will resume its southward plunge in the West, after which we can expect the severe threat to rise again.

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