Hurricane Season Is Not Over Yet: Multiple Areas Are Being Monitored for Tropical Development This Week

Brian Donegan
Published: October 14, 2019

The Atlantic hurricane season typically begins to quiet down the deeper we head into October, but a few areas in the Atlantic Basin are now being monitored for development – a reminder that the hurricane season officially runs through Nov. 30.

(MORE: Here's Where the Greatest Hurricane Threat Is in October

System No. 1

A vigorous tropical wave, accompanied by a large low-pressure system, has emerged over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean after exiting the western coast of Africa on Sunday.

Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said environmental conditions are conducive for a tropical depression to form within the next day or so as the disturbance moves northwestward toward the Cabo Verde Islands.

This system has been dubbed Invest 94L by the NHC. Invest is a naming convention used by meteorologists to identify areas that are under investigation for possible tropical development.

(MORE: What Is an Invest?


Atlantic Basin View

This portion of the Atlantic Ocean is not a climatologically favorable area for tropical development in October, but the NHC has given Invest 94L a high chance of development over the next two days.

(MORE: Atlantic Tropical Depression Could Form in a Rare Location for So Late in the Hurricane Season

Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the forecast for this system. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds are possible there through Wednesday morning, regardless of development.

If this system forms, it's not likely to last very long since upper-level winds will become more hostile during the latter half of this week.

Nestor would be the name given to the next named storm that develops in the Atlantic this season.

System No. 2

The NHC has also highlighted a broad area of low pressure over northwestern Honduras for a low chance of development over the next five days.

This system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over much of the southwestern Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Honduras and portions of Central America. It is forecast to move west-northwestward across southern Belize, northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico, which will inhibit tropical cyclone formation for the next couple of days because of land interaction.

These are the typical areas for development and tracks of Atlantic Basin tropical cyclones in October.

However, the disturbance is expected to emerge over the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday. Once it does so, conditions may be a little more conducive for tropical development.

Regardless of development, heavy rain is likely over portions of Central America during the next few days. This may lead to flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.

The western Caribbean Sea and southwestern Gulf of Mexico are typical areas where we watch for tropical development in October.

System No. 3

A third area is now being monitored for development in the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, where a tropical wave is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This system has been dubbed Invest 95L by the NHC.

Upper-level winds are only expected to be marginally conducive for development over the next day or two as the system moves westward across the tropical Atlantic.

The disturbance will approach the Windward Islands by late Wednesday, where upper-level winds are predicted to be too hostile for any significant development to occur.

The NHC has given this system a low chance of development in the next five days.

Eastern Pacific Also Bears Watching

A broad area of low pressure off the Pacific coast of Central America has been highlighted by the NHC for a high chance of development in the next five days. It's currently producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms a couple of hundred miles south of the coast of El Salvador.

Gradual development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days as it moves west-northwestward near or just off the coasts of Guatemala and Mexico. By late week, the system's proximity to land may inhibit further development.

Heavy rain that is currently falling across Nicaragua and Honduras is predicted to spread westward over El Salvador and Guatemala Monday night and Tuesday, then into southern Mexico by Wednesday. This rain could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas.


Eastern Pacific Basin View

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.


The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.