Here's Why A Chilly Start To November Might Seem Like Déjà Vu in Central, Eastern U.S.

Linda Lam
Published: November 3, 2019

A prolonged cold pattern is ahead for much of the central and eastern United States, which might lead to a repeat of last November.

Chilly conditions have swept eastward behind a cold front to start November, and the upper-level weather pattern will be favorable for additional blasts of cold air to infiltrate the U.S. into mid-November.

(MAPS: Current Temperatures

This upper-level pattern has brought a southward plunge in the jet stream over portions of the central and eastern U.S., which will allow colder than average temperatures to dive southward at times through the second full week of the month.

A southward dip in the jet stream will bring rounds of colder than average temperatures to parts of the central and eastern U.S.

Here's a look at how cold it will be and how long it may last.

Chilly Weekend Forecast

The first freeze of the season has occurred in parts of the Ohio Valley, mid-Atlantic and South as November began. For some parts of the South, these freezing temperatures came earlier than average, including Memphis, Tennessee, which has its average first freeze by Nov. 14 but dipped to 31 degrees on Friday.

A few daily record low temperatures were set on Friday, including, Grand Junction, Colorado (11 degrees), Peoria, Illinois (21 degrees - tied), Indianapolis (24 degrees - tied), Wichita Falls, Texas (25 degrees), Waco, Texas (25 degrees), San Angelo, Texas (26 degrees) and Dallas (31 degrees - tied).

(MORE: When Your First Freeze Arrives

Lows will generally be 10 to 20 degrees below average in the East and South early this week. This corresponds to temperatures dipping into the 30s across much of the South and East, with 20s in parts of the Midwest and interior Northeast.


Forecast Morning Lows

High temperatures will be as much as 10 degrees below average in the Midwest and South through this weekend.

Temperatures will top out in the 50s for much of the Ohio Valley and 60s most of the South except for Florida and Texas. Highs in the 30s and 40s will be found in the Northern Plains, Midwest and interior Northeast.


Forecast Highs

More Cold into Mid-November

Temperatures will moderate and return to near average briefly early this week in the East, but multiple shots of cold air will slide into the Northern Plains and Rockies Monday and again Wednesday. This reinforcing cold air will then spread through the rest of the South and East through late next week.

Overall, below average temperatures will likely dominate most of the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. into mid-November.

The 8- to 14-day temperature outlook from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center indicates that the Midwest, mid-Atlantic, mid-South and Northeast have at least a 50% chance of below average temperatures during this period.


Temperature Outlook

The chilly pattern may relax in mid-November, but given the early season snowpack in Canada, prolonged warmth is unlikely in the northern tier heading into the second half of the month. This means that November 2019 might have below average temperatures prevail for many areas east of the Rockies.

(MORE: November 2019 U.S. Temperature Outlook

Similar to November 2018?

November 2018 was one of the 10 coldest Novembers on record for Illinois, Missouri, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Mississippi. Kansas City, Missouri, shivered through its coldest November on record.

The only warmer than average areas last November were found along the West Coast, and in Alaska and Florida.

The upper-level pattern last year also brought a persistent southward dip in the jet stream over the central and eastern U.S., which led to the chilly November for much of the country.

Average State Temperature in November 2018
(Data: NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information)

Last year's cold was also accompanied by a blizzard and record snow. However, it is too early to know if snowy conditions will also occur this November.

The focus of the most anomalous cold and its impacts this year may be in different locations than November 2018, but the overall pattern suggests that a chilly November may be ahead for the second year in a row.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.


The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.