U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus01 kwns 140049 
Storm Prediction Center ac 140048 

Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0748 PM CDT sun Oct 13 2019 

Valid 140100z - 141200z 

..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 

severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. 

A persistent mid-level low over Ontario will slowly move east with a 
belt of strong cyclonic flow wrapping around the southern semicircle 
of this feature and encompassing the area from the Great Lakes into 
the northeast. Farther south, a jet streak will extend from 
northern Baja California eastward into the Carolinas. Weak ascent 
associated with the left exit region of the speed Max, coupled with 
a frontal zone and a seasonably moist/weakly unstable airmass over 
the Carolina coastal plain, will yield isolated to scattered 
thunderstorms this evening. The weak cape profile and subdued flow 
(30kt or less in the surface to 3km layer) sampled by the Morehead 
City, NC raob will likely limit storm vigor this evening before the 
activity pushes east of the Outer Banks later tonight. 

.Smith.. 10/14/2019 


Mesoscale Discussion

acus11 kwns 110222 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 110221 

Mesoscale discussion 2067 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0921 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 

Areas affected...parts of North Texas 

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 674... 

Valid 110221z - 110415z 

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 674 

Summary...the threat of large hail and localized wind damage 
continues over the watch area. 

Discussion...storms have increased in coverage this evening, now 
lining up along and just behind the cold front. Several storms are 
producing large hail, with a few cores long-lived. With time, storms 
may merge into more of a linear structure with a threat of localized 
wind damage. The 00z forward sounding shows ample instability with a 
favorable hodograph to sustained severe storms. The only mitigating 
factor to a more substantial supercell threat will continue to be 
the cold front undercutting the storms. Relatively stable air 
remains over far eastern Texas which may affect/weaken northeastern 
parts of the line first. 

.Jewell.. 10/11/2019 

..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Latitude...Lon 31879906 32629787 33489658 33879596 33889529 33419509 
32549551 31939606 31659700 31509773 31529834 31879906