U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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000 
acus01 kwns 151553 
swody1 
Storm Prediction Center ac 151552 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1052 am CDT sun Sep 15 2019 


Valid 151630z - 161200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the 
contiguous U.S. Today. 


..far Southeast Arizona and southwest nm... 
A couple stronger storms are possible near the Southeast 
Arizona/southwest nm/international border area to the south of a 
low-amplitude shortwave impulse slowly moving from the Mogollon Rim 
to the southern rockies. Pockets of greater insolation should be 
confined to the international border with abundant cloud 
coverage/remnant stratiform rain farther north closer to the 
shortwave impulse. Scattered thunderstorms will develop later this 
afternoon as destabilization occurs within the cloud breaks. 
Moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg in conjunction with 
effective shear around 25 kt may support a couple updrafts 
possessing weak/transient mid-level rotation. Amid modest mid-level 
lapse rates, this setup would most likely yield small hail and 
locally strong gusts. Overall threat appears too limited to warrant 
a severe risk area. 


.Grams/karstens.. 09/15/2019 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


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acus11 kwns 150240 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 150240 
azz000-150415- 


Mesoscale discussion 1979 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0940 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019 


Areas affected...Arizona 


Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 653... 


Valid 150240z - 150415z 


The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 653 
continues. 


Summary...severe threat is decreasing across ww653. 


Discussion...earlier convection that developed over the higher 
terrain of central Arizona has propagated southwest across the lower 
deserts. This activity has struggled to organize, though gusty winds 
have likely been noted with the strongest storms. Even so, overall 
severe threat appears to be waning as diurnal cooling and 
boundary-layer stabilization appears to be negatively influencing 
convection. 


.Darrow.. 09/15/2019 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...twc...psr... 


Latitude...Lon 31931330 33451331 33621227 32461180 31931330