U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0730 PM CDT sun Apr 22 2018 


Valid 230100z - 231200z 


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from the Florida 
Panhandle into southwest Georgia... 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from central 
Alabama to the Florida Panhandle... 


... 
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a 
brief/weak tornado are possible across parts of Alabama, the Florida 
Panhandle, and southwest Georgia into this evening. 


... 
Two areas of thunderstorms persist this evening, one from the Florida 
Panhandle into southwest Georgia in a warm advection regime, and another 
arcing line of storms moving into central Alabama closer to the upper 
low. Low level shear and srh remain supportive of rotating storms in 
both areas, despite marginal instability. The 00z bmx sounding shows 
a few hundred j/kg MUCAPE, but a very large looping hodograph. Cool 
air over northern and eastern Alabama will likely result in weakening as 
storms exit central al, but not before a localized wind or brief 
tornado threat in the near term. 


To the southeast, a relatively moist air mass exists along the Gulf 
Coast but precipitation is becoming widespread. Low-level shear 
remains supportive of embedded supercells for a few more hours. For 
more information see mesoscale discussion 284. 


.Jewell.. 04/23/2018 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


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Mesoscale discussion 0284 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0711 PM CDT sun Apr 22 2018 


Areas affected...portions of the Florida Panhandle...extreme southeast 
Alabama...extreme southwest Georgia 


Concerning...Tornado Watch 56... 


Valid 230011z - 230115z 


The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 56 continues. 


Summary...the greatest short-term tornado risk will likely focus 
near the maritime/warm front in the Alabama-GA-FL tri-state region. 


Discussion...latest subjective surface analysis places a warm front 
from Apalachee Bay northwest near Tallahassee and into southeast Alabama. 
A very moist airmass with weak buoyancy (590 j/kg MLCAPE per the 
evening tlh raob) characterizes this area. Surface dewpoints are in 
the upper 60s-70 degrees f range along and south of the boundary and 
in the middle 60s east and northeast of the boundary. As stronger 
updrafts move northeast within the warm conveyer convective plume 
and interact within the warm frontal zone, the backed low-level flow 
and augmented hodographs will support a greater threat for low-level 
mesocyclones and the possibility for a couple of weak/short-track 
supercell tornadoes. The main concern/uncertainty at this time is 
the cessation of the tornado risk and the watch expiration time. 
Either a local watch extension-in-time or a watch replacement may 
need to be considered in the next 60-90 minutes since the watch 
expires at 9pm CDT/10pm EDT. 


.Smith.. 04/23/2018 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...tae... 


Latitude...Lon 30368468 30998532 31458504 31418455 30648417 30368468