U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day Three

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Storm Prediction Center ac 260706 


Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0206 am CDT sun Mar 26 2017 


Valid 281200z - 291200z 


..there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of 
west-central Texas... 


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of West 
Texas and southwest Oklahoma... 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over much of the 
Southern Plains... 


... 
Strong to severe storms are forecast for Tuesday over parts of 
western and central Texas, and southwest Oklahoma. 


The next in a series of strong and progressive upper troughs will 
track into the southwest states on Tuesday. By afternoon, model 
guidance is consistent that strong mid-level height falls and 
rapidly increasing wind fields will develop over much of the 
southern High Plains. This will draw Gulf moisture northwestward 
and focus a dryline just east of the Texas/nm border. Models remain 
somewhat inconsistent in the latitude of the upper trough, and the 
details of where the surface low and dryline will develop. 
Nevertheless, an active round of severe storms is forecast for parts 
of this region during the evening hours. Forecast soundings show 
steep mid level lapse rates, favorable low level moisture, and 
strong low/deep layer shear. These parameters suggest the risk of 
very large hail, damaging winds, as well as tornadoes. Therefore 
have added an enhanced risk area where confidence in severe storms 
is highest at this time. 


.Hart.. 03/26/2017 


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