U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus03 kwns 220728 
Storm Prediction Center ac 220727 

Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0227 am CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 

Valid 241200z - 251200z 

..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over portions of 
the northern plains... 

Isolated severe storms will be possible Wednesday across portions of 
the northern plains. 

The eastern U.S. Upper trough will continue east towards the 
mid-Atlantic/northeast coast on Wednesday as upper-level high 
pressure remains entrenched over the southwest states. A belt of 
stronger mid-level flow will extend from the Pacific northwest into 
the northern plains, and a pronounced shortwave trough will move 
east across the Canadian rockies along the international border. A 
surface frontal boundary extending from northern Florida west through 
south Texas will move little, while a cold front, initially across the 
northern rockies, moves east into the northern plains Wednesday 

..northern plains... 
The large-scale ridge is forecast to flatten somewhat with the 
approach of the Pacific northwest upper trough and monsoon impulses 
rotating around the upper-level anticyclone. Weak/pockets of 
moderate instability should develop by afternoon along a pre-frontal 
trough as diurnal heating of upper 50s/lower 60s dew points takes 
place. Thunderstorms may develop along the pre-frontal trough and 
the approaching cold front, though an expanding eml and increasing 
cinh may limit overall coverage. Adequate shear (35-40 kts) will be 
in place for updraft organization and support at least some risk for 
severe storms. 

.Bunting.. 07/22/2019