U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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000 
acus01 kwns 260105 
swody1 
Storm Prediction Center ac 260103 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0803 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019 


Valid 260100z - 261200z 


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from a portion of 
the Central Plains into the middle Mississippi Valley region as well 
as the central through northern High Plains... 


... 
Strong to severe storms will continue through at least mid evening 
from a portion of the Central Plains through the middle Mississippi 
Valley. Other strong to severe storms will persist into mid evening 
over a portion of the central through northern High Plains as well 
as a portion of West Texas. Damaging wind and hail will be the main 
threats in all areas. 


..north central through northeast Kansas... 


Cluster of storms that developed along a cold front over southern NE 
is propagating southward into north central Kansas. A leading supercell 
near Concordia may continue to pose a risk for very large hail next 
hour or so. Other storms are developing farther west north of the 
trailing outflow boundary. The 00z radiosonde observation from top indicates a 65 f 
surface dewpoint, but with a decreasing moisture profile through the 
remainder of the boundary layer. While a modest increase in 
low-level moisture may occur this evening, believe that the boundary 
layer should decouple rapidly with onset of nocturnal cooling, 
resulting in a substantial increase in surface-based convective 
inhibition. The severe threat may persist another couple hours over 
north central through northeast KS, followed by a rapid weakening 
trend by 03z. 


..northern Missouri through central Illinois... 


Cluster of storms that developed along the cold front have evolved 
into a small cluster over northeast MO into western Illinois posing a risk 
for damaging wind and hail . The 00z ilx radiosonde observation and surface 
observations Show Low 60s f dewpoints across central IL, but with 
marginal MLCAPE (less than 1000 j/kg). Decoupling of the boundary 
layer resulting in a substantial increase in convective inhibition 
should lead to a gradual weakening trend by 03z. 


..central through northern High Plains... 


Storms spreading eastward into the central through northern High 
Plains will continue to pose a risk for downburst winds and hail 
through at least 03z, followed by a gradual diminishing trend. 


.Dial.. 06/26/2019 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


000 
acus11 kwns 260219 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 260218 
ilz000-moz000-260415- 


Mesoscale discussion 1250 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0918 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019 


Areas affected...northern Missouri...central Illinois 


Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445... 


Valid 260218z - 260415z 


The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445 
continues. 


Summary...a severe threat is expected to continue across ww 445 and 
may spread eastward across central Illinois over the next 1 to 2 
hours. Wind damage and hail will be the primary threats. A ww 
extension may be needed across parts of central Illinois as the 
storms move eastward toward the edge of the watch. 


Discussion...a cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing 
in western Illinois, located along the northern edge of a moist 
airmass with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s f. This is 
contributing to low-end moderate instability across central Illinois 
with the rap estimating MLCAPE values in the 1000 to 1500 j/kg 
range. In addition, the Lincoln WSR-88D vwp shows 0-6 km shear of 
35-40 kt with veered south-southwesterly winds at the surface. 40 kt 
of westerly flow is evident near 3 km above ground level which is likely being 
enhanced by a speed Max at 700 mb over southern Iowa. This should be 
enough continue a severe threat as the storms move across central 
Illinois over the next few hours. Wind damage would be the primary 
threat although hail could also occur with the stronger updrafts. 


.Broyles/guyer.. 06/26/2019 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...ilx...lsx...dvn...eax... 


Latitude...Lon 40478907 40119201 40239354 40159439 39819446 39659335 
39289072 39108876 39478799 40098792 40478907