000
acus01 kwns 200102
swody1
Storm Prediction Center ac 200100
Day 1 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT sun may 19 2013
Valid 200100z - 201200z
..there is a MDT risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of northern/eastern
OK and southeast Kansas into MO...
..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from the central/Southern
Plains to the Midwest/upper MS valley...
..south-Central Plains to Midwest/upper MS valley...
A scattered supercell or two remaining capable of a strong tornado
will remain a distinct concern especially over the next few hours
/mid into late evening/ across east-Central/Northeast OK...with
additional development including supercells along a consolidating
northeast-southwest oriented frontal zone across Kansas into northern
OK.
Meanwhile...to the northeast...multiple amalgamating/upscale growing
clusters will likely continue to evolve across the Ozarks/lower MO
valley into the middle/upper MS valley. The most substantial upscale
development/sustained linear organization will likely impact the
lower MO valley/middle MS valley tonight...especially given
nocturnal strengthening of an already moderately strong southerly
low level jet. Potentially widespread damaging winds will be a
concern especially across MO into eastern Iowa/far western Illinois...with a
few tornadoes /possibly even a strong one/ possible in association
with embedded mesovortices.
.Guyer.. 05/20/2013
Mesoscale Discussion
000
acus11 kwns 200211
sels mesoscale discussion
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 200211
iaz000-200315-
Mesoscale discussion 0715
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0911 PM CDT sun may 19 2013
Areas affected...central Iowa
Concerning...Tornado Watch 183...
Valid 200211z - 200315z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 183 continues.
Summary...an isolated severe weather threat may persist beyond the
03z expiration of Tornado Watch 183. As such...a local extension in
time could be required.
Discussion...thunderstorms have become widespread across S-central Iowa within a
zone of DCVA attendant to a midlevel vorticity maximum pivoting northeastward
through the lower-MO valley. The air mass ahead of ongoing storms
remains at least modestly unstable...and given the colocation of a
700-500-mb wind maximum...sufficient vertical shear exists to
support organized storm structures with a continued risk for severe
weather.
To the west of the ongoing storms...the severe weather threat has
diminished and existing portions of watch can be cleared or allowed
to expire at 03z.
.Mead.. 05/20/2013
..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product...
Attention...WFO...dmx...
Latitude...Lon 41499332 42119318 42289258 41919230 41329255 40909228
40649240 40639318 40649369 40779388 41499332
