U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Storm Prediction Center ac 270535 


Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1235 am CDT Mon Mar 27 2017 


Valid 281200z - 291200z 


..there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms Tuesday 
afternoon and evening over parts of west-central Texas and southwest 
Oklahoma... 


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across 
western-central and north-central Texas into much of Oklahoma... 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over much of 
Texas and Oklahoma... 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across much of 
the middle-Atlantic region... 


... 
Severe storms are forecast on Tuesday over parts of west-central and 
north-central Texas, and much of Oklahoma. A few strong to severe 
storms are also possible over parts of the mid-Atlantic region. 


... 
A strong shortwave trough currently off the coast of northern California 
will move into the southwestern states and deepen by Tuesday 
afternoon. Strengthening southerly low-level wind fields over Texas 
will rapidly transport Gulf moisture northward, with dewpoints in 
the 60s ahead of a dryline positioned over west-central Texas. A warm 
front will extend from southwest to northeast across OK by early 
evening. The area near the triple-Point of these boundaries is 
likely to be the focus for supercell thunderstorm development. 
Forecast soundings in the warm sector indicate ample low level 
moisture beneath steep mid level lapse rates, yielding afternoon 
MLCAPE values around 2000 j/kg. Substantial low-level and 
deep-layer vertical shear are expected, supportive of supercells 
capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. 


There are still uncertainties regarding the details of this setup. 
Most models suggest that considerable thunderstorm activity will 
occur Tuesday morning over the Texas Panhandle and northwest OK. This 
will likely modulate the position of the warm front, and perhaps the 
northern extent of greatest threat. Therefore will maintain the 
ongoing enh risk, with consideration for upgrade to MDT risk in 
later outlooks. 


Storms will progress east-northeastward into south-central OK and 
north-central Texas during the evening, with a continued enhanced-risk 
of severe weather. 


..mid Atlantic region... 
The shortwave trough currently affecting the Southern Plains will 
track across the MS/Ohio valleys on Monday and affect the mid-Atlantic 
states on Tuesday. A consensus of model guidance suggests that warm 
and relatively moist low-level conditions will be present, with 
dewpoints around 60f and afternoon MLCAPE values around 1000 j/kg. 
Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop ahead of the trough 
over parts of PA/MD/VA/NC and track eastward toward the coast by 
evening. The strongest cells in this area could produce hail and 
locally damaging wind gusts. 


.Hart.. 03/27/2017 


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