U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day Three

000 
acus02 kwns 200630 
swody2 
Storm Prediction Center ac 200629 


Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1229 am CST Tue Nov 20 2018 


Valid 211200z - 221200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
isolated thunderstorms are possible along the California coast on 
Wednesday but no severe thunderstorms are expected. 


..synopsis and discussion... 
A southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to progress eastward 
across the Southern Plains and lower MS valley during the period. 
The approach of this shortwave will help induce surface cyclogenesis 
is anticipated along the western periphery of a stalled frontal zone 
extending across the Gulf of Mexico. However, the resulting low is 
expected to remain over the western Gulf, precluding any warm sector 
penetration inland and keeping any instability well offshore. 


Farther west, a deep upper trough will move over the West Coast 
during the second half of the period. Abundant cloud cover is 
anticipated ahead of this system, limiting diurnal heating. Even so, 
cool temperatures aloft will contribute to steep lapse rates and 
modestly unstable profiles. Bands of showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are expected along and just ahead of the surface front 
associated with the upper trough. The isolated thunderstorm threat 
is only expected to extend about 50-70 miles inland with the cooler 
temperatures and/or reduced low-level moisture contributing to more 
stability farther inland. 


..maximum risk by hazard... 
Tornado: <2% - none 
wind: <5% - none 
hail: <5% - none 


.Mosier.. 11/20/2018 


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