U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus02 kwns 240558 
Storm Prediction Center ac 240557 

Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1257 am CDT Mon Apr 24 2017 

Valid 251200z - 261200z 

..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of 
northeast Oklahoma...southeast Kansas and Missouri... 

..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms outside of the 
slight risk area across parts of northeast Oklahoma...southeast 
Kansas and Missouri... 

Thunderstorms associated with large hail and isolated wind damage 
are expected to develop across parts of northeast Oklahoma, 
southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri Tuesday evening. 

..northeast Oklahoma/southeast Kansas/southwest Missouri... 
An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the southern and 
central rockies on Tuesday as a mid-level jet rounds the base of the 
trough. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance 
southward across the Central Plains reaching eastern Kansas and 
northern Oklahoma by late afternoon. A cap should prohibit 
convective development along the front during the day. However, the 
cap should weaken by early evening, which combined with increasing 
low-level convergence along the front, should result in thunderstorm 
development in the vicinity of southwest Missouri, southeast Kansas 
and northeast Oklahoma. 

Ahead of the cold front, moisture advection will take place 
throughout the day. Surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the 
lower to mid 60s f from northeast Oklahoma into western Missouri. 
NAM forecast soundings along the corridor early Tuesday evening at 
Tulsa, Oklahoma and Springfield, Missouri have MLCAPE near 1500 j/kg 
with 0-6 km shear of 50 kt. This combined with steep lapse rates in 
the low to mid-levels may result in supercell development associated 
with large hail. However, thunderstorms may also congeal into lines 
along the front which would be more favorable for wind damage. The 
dominant type of severe weather will depend upon which storm Mode 
that is most favored. 

..Texas Panhandle... 
An upper-level trough will move across the southern and central 
rockies on Tuesday as a cold front moves southward into the Texas 
Panhandle. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the cold 
front Tuesday evening where forecast soundings show enough 
instability and steep lapse rates sufficient for hail. At this time, 
do not have enough confidence that the hail threat will meet 
criteria for a marginal severe threat area. 

.Broyles.. 04/24/2017