U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus02 kwns 221714 
Storm Prediction Center ac 221713 

Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1213 PM CDT sun Oct 22 2017 

Valid 231200z - 241200z 

..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from eastern 
Georgia to the mid-Atlantic... 

A few strong to marginally severe storms are expected from eastern 
Georgia to the mid-Atlantic Monday afternoon into the overnight 
hours. The primary threat will be damaging wind gusts. 

..Georgia and the Carolinas... 
A pronounced mid-level shortwave trough, now crossing East Texas, 
will progress eastward to the southeast US on Monday, gradually 
acquiring a more negative tilt as a powerful upper jet evolves 
southeastward over the central/northern plains. In response to the 
southeastern impulse, a surface front will push towards the Atlantic 
Seaboard, while southerly flow ahead of the front brings mid/upper 
60s dew points northward across parts of the Carolinas. 

Near/along the front, a broken line of convection will likely be 
progressing east across Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle 
early in the day. As the line encounters greater moisture and 
related surface-based buoyancy across eastern Georgia and South 
Carolina by afternoon, modest strengthening of convection is 
probable. Forecast deep-layer wind fields suggest a potential for 
small bowing segments and occasional embedded circulations within 
the broader line of storms. However, strengthening anvil-layer flow 
may cast considerable cloud cover/precipitation downstream during 
the day, stunting low-level destabilization and tempering the severe 
threat. Nonetheless, the potential remains for a few damaging gusts 
and perhaps a tornado, and some parts of the marginal risk 
(especially across SC and far eastern ga) could require an upgrade 
if a greater potential for heating/destabilization becomes apparent. 

A broken line of shallow/thin convection will race eastward across 
Virginia through the overnight, with showers and thunderstorms 
approaching the Delmarva by early Tuesday morning. Destabilization 
will be even weaker here than it will be over the southeast, and 
surface-based parcels may have only 100-300 j/kg of MLCAPE to 
utilize during the overnight hours. However, 50-60 kt of 850mb flow 
will overspread parts of the region towards 03-09z. In turn, more 
organized convective elements may sufficiently enhance downward 
momentum Transfer for isolated damaging gusts late Monday night. 

.Picca.. 10/22/2017