U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus02 kwns 220555 
Storm Prediction Center ac 220554 

Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1254 am CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 

Valid 231200z - 241200z 

..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over southern 
and eastern portions of the Carolinas... 

Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will be 
possible Tuesday across southern and eastern portions of the 

An amplifying upper-level trough will shift slowly east across the 
mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. Tuesday while an expansive 
anticyclone remains centered near The Four Corners region. A 
southeastward-moving cold front will extend southwest from the 
Delmarva Peninsula across the central Gulf Coast and south Texas by 
Tuesday evening as a weak surface low develops over central NC and 
lifts offshore along the front. A very moist air mass will remain 
in place along and south of the front with widespread surface dew 
points in the upper 60s to mid 70s. 

..southern/eastern NC and SC... 
Cloud cover will likely be substantial across the mid-Atlantic 
region in the vicinity of the frontal boundary given the very moist 
air mass characterized by precipitable water values of around 2 inches. The 
southern periphery of stronger mid-level flow with the amplifying 
upper trough will reside in this area and contribute to sufficient 
shear for organized storms, especially where localized breaks in the 
clouds augment surface-based instability. Clusters of thunderstorms 
should develop by early to mid afternoon with a risk for damaging 
downburst winds. 

..maximum risk by hazard... 
Tornado: <2% - none 
wind: 5% - marginal 
hail: <5% - none 

.Bunting.. 07/22/2019