U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus02 kwns 181725 
Storm Prediction Center ac 181724 

Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1224 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019 

Valid 191200z - 201200z 

..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 

a few thunderstorms will be possible over a portion of the central 
and southern rockies Tuesday afternoon and evening, far South 
Florida during the day, and parts of the central and Southern 
California coast late Tuesday night. 

..central/southern rockies... 
An upper level shortwave trough will drop south/southeast over the 
central rockies and plains on Tuesday. Upslope flow across the 
central/southern rockies and steepening midlevel lapse rates should 
be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and 
evening as forcing for ascent increases with the approach of the 
upper wave. Instability will be limited and deep layer shear rather 
weak, precluding severe concerns. 

..far South Florida... 
A surface cold front will stall south of FL, but midlevel 
southwesterly flow will continue to transport moisture northward 
atop the boundary and across the peninsula. Instability will remain 
poor but could be sufficient for a few lightning strikes, especially 
near the Keys and the near-shore waters of far South Florida as a 
weak midlevel low passes from west to east across southern Florida in 
broader cyclonic flow. 

..central/Southern California coast... 
An upper trough will move inland by Wednesday morning. Steepening 
lapse rates and increasing forcing as the system moves toward the 
coast could be sufficient for a few strikes late in the forecast 
period ahead of an eastward advancing cold front. 

..maximum risk by hazard... 
Tornado: <2% - none 
wind: <5% - none 
hail: <5% - none 

.Leitman.. 03/18/2019