- Day Three
acus02 kwns 211711
Storm Prediction Center ac 211711
Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 am CST Thu Nov 21 2019
Valid 221200z - 231200z
..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
southeast Texas into la...
Thunderstorms are expected from the Southern Plains into the lower
Mississippi Valley Friday. A low probability of locally strong wind
gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will exist from southeast Texas
into Louisiana during the day.
..southeast Texas into Louisiana...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Friday morning
along and ahead of a surface cold front. This cold front will
stretch from southwest Arkansas into central Texas at the beginning of the
period, shifting east/southeast from western la to the Texas Gulf Coast
by 00z. Southerly low level flow ahead of the front will maintain
surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 f. Cloudiness and shower
activity will limit destabilization, with a narrow corridor of
MLCAPE generally less than 1000 j/kg expected across southeast Texas
into la during the late morning into the afternoon. Lapse rates also
will remain poor, further limiting storm intensity.
However, strong deep layer southwesterly shear will overspread the
region as a shortwave trough shifts from the central/Southern Plains
to the mid-MS valley. Effective shear near 40-50 kt will support
some organized/rotating storm structures. Furthermore, while low
level speed shear is not particularly strong, forecast soundings
indicate small, curved hodographs ahead of the front near the Sabine
River. As a result, an isolated strong to severe storms capable of
locally strong wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible.
..maximum risk by hazard...
Tornado: 2% - marginal
wind: 5% - marginal
hail: <5% - none