U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus02 kwns 230454 
Storm Prediction Center ac 230453 

Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1153 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 

Valid 241200z - 251200z 

..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across much of 
central New Mexico... 

..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across Georgia 
into the Carolinas... 

Isolated strong storms with gusty winds are possible over portions 
of the southeast on Saturday, with isolated hail or wind over parts 
of New Mexico. 

A broad area of cyclonic flow aloft will stretch from the upper 
Mississippi Valley into the northeast, with an upper ridge across 
the Pacific coast and upper high over Arizona. At the surface, high 
pressure will spread southeastward across the plains and into the 
lower Mississippi Valley, with a weak surface trough along the East 
Coast. The more substantial moisture and instability will exist 
mainly along the Gulf Coast and toward the mid Atlantic, with 
sufficient instability in areas for thunderstorms. 

Southeasterly surface winds will allow low amounts of moisture to 
spread westward out of west TX, with strong heating during the day. 
This will create an unstable air mass, with steep lapse rates 
supportive of strong updrafts. Modest northwest flow aloft atop 
weakly veering low level winds with height may prove sufficient to 
sustain at least isolated single-cell storms capable of hail. 

..central Georgia into the Carolinas... 
Modest southwesterly flow aloft will exist across the area on the 
southern periphery of the upper trough. Meanwhile, a weak surface 
trough will exist from the mid Atlantic region southwestward toward 
the central Gulf Coast. Strong heating will occur during the day, 
with a moist air mass in place. Although instability will be 
marginal, scattered storms are likely by afternoon along this weak 

.Jewell.. 06/23/2017