Tropical Weather Discussion


abio10 pgtw 181800
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 98b) previously located 
near 13.5n 86.8e, is now located near 14.1n 86.8e, approximately 490 
nm south of kolkata, India. Animated enhanced IR satellite imagery 
shows an elongated low level circulation with convection primarily 
located to the northeast. An 18/1524z AMSU-b 89ghz image revealed 
banding wrapping into an elongated center with convection located to 
the northeast of the center. The disturbance is currently located in 
a favorable environment due to divergence aloft, low vertical wind 
shear (10-15 kt), and high SST values (>28c) with higher values 
towards the northern coast of the Bay of Bengal. The global models 
depict the system will track northwestward to northward over the 
next several days, however, model guidance is split as to the degree 
of intensification and organization prior to landfall, with some 
model runs not predicting 98b reaching tropical depression strength. 
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots. 
Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1000 mb. The 
potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone 
within the next 24 hours remains medium.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.//

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