Tropical Weather Discussion


abio10 pgtw 201800
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 93s) previously located
near 7.8s 56.5e, is now located near 7.2s 55.0e, approximately 790
nm north-northwest of Mauritius. Animated multispectral satellite
imagery depicts flaring convection wrapping into a broad,
consolidating llc. A 04201523z partial ssmis 91ghz microwave image
reveals isolated areas of deep convection and formative banding. The
current upper level environment is characterized by marginal
diffluence aloft and low to moderate (10-20 kts) vertical wind
shear. SSTs are warm (28-29c) and will support further development.
Global models are split on the chance of development, with navgem
and GFS predicting development as the system tracks southwest
towards Madagascar over the next several days, while the UKMET model
does not forecast significant intensification at this time. Maximum
sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots. Minimum sea
level pressure is estimated to be near 1004 mb. The potential for
the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24
hours is upgraded to medium.
      (2) no other suspect areas.//

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