Tropical Weather Discussion

000 

abio10 pgtw 132200
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian Ocean
/reissued/132200z-141800zdec2018//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/130251zdec2018//
ref/b/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/132051zdec2018//
nar/refs a and b are tropical cyclone formation alerts.//
Rmks/
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 94b) previously located
near 7.4n 88.4e, is now located near 7.6n 88.2e, approximately 490
nm east of Colombo, Sri Lanka. Animated enhanced infrared satellite
imagery shows a slowly consolidating low level circulation center
(LLCC) with persistent deep convection. Upper-level analysis
indicates moderate (15-25 knots) vertical wind shear, offset by good
poleward outflow. Sea surface temperatures (28-30 celsius) in the
surrounding area remain favorable for development. Global models
generally agree on a northwest trajectory, but vary on the timing
and intensity. Models indicate the disturbance reaching tropical
strength with in the next 30-48 hours. Maximum sustained surface
winds are estimated at 22 to 28 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is
estimated to be near 1001 mb. The potential for the development of a
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.
See ref a (wtio21 pgtw 130300) for further details.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 91s) previously located
near 6.8s 92.8e, is now located near 7.6s 91.4e, approximately 428
nm northwest of coco islands. Enhanced infrared satellite imagery
and a partial 131920z amsr2 89 ghz microwave image show a
consolidating low level circulation (llc) with fragmented, formative
banding and persistent deep convection. Upper level analysis
indicates moderate to high (20-30 knot) vertical wind shear and very
good poleward outflow. Sea surface temperatures (26-28 celsius) are
favorable for development. A recent partial ascat pass reveals a
broad, symmetric circulation with stronger winds wrapping into the
llc from the northeast. Global models are in good agreement that 91s
will track southwestward and intensify over the next several days.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 28 knots.
Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1003 mb. The
potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone
within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high. See ref b (wtxs21 pgtw
132100) for further details.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
3. Justification for reissue: upgraded area in 2.B (1) to high.//
Nnnn

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