Tropical Weather Discussion


abio10 pgtw 091800
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/090753zdec2019//
ref/b/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/081821zdec2019//
narr/ref a is a tropical cyclone warning. Ref b is a tropical
/cyclone formation alert cancellation//
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 92b) previously located 
near 9.3n 63.9e is now located near 10.6n 58.0e, approximately 224 
nm southeast of socotra. Animated multispectral satellite imagery 
and a 091231z ssmis f-18 91ghz image depict deep convection with 
pockets of flaring convection over an obscured low level 
circulation. Upper level analysis indicates that the system is in an 
area of moderate (15-20 knots) vertical wind shear with marginal 
equatorward outflow. Sea surface temperatures are not favorable for 
development at 25-26 degrees celsius. Global models are in good 
agreement that 92b will have little to no intensification. Maximum 
sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots. Minimum sea 
level pressure is estimated to be near 1004 mb. The potential for 
the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 
hours is low. See ref b (wtio21 pgtw 081830) for further details.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
   C. Subtropical system summary: none.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 09dec19 0600z, tropical cyclone 02s (belna) was located 
near 14.6s 45.6e, approximately 550 nm northeast of Europa island, 
and had tracked south-southwestward at 10 knots (kts) over the past 
six hours. Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 80 
knots gusting to 100 knots. See ref a (wtxs31 pgtw 090900) for 
further details.
      (2) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
   C. Subtropical system summary: none.//

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