Tropical Weather Discussion


abpw10 pgtw 101430
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
South Pacific oceans reissued/101430z-110600zdec2017//
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) an area of convection (invest 96w) has persisted near 7.7n 
135.8e, approximately 70 nm east of Palau. Animated enhanced 
infrared satellite imagery and a 101203z AMSU-b 89ghz microwave 
partial pass show a poorly organized system with limited flaring 
convection. A 101202z ascat partial pass shows a broad circulation 
with primarily 5-10 knot winds and isolated 15 to 20 knot winds to 
the west. The disturbance is currently located in a moderately 
favorable area with upper level poleward outflow and warm sea 
surface temperatures (28-29 celsius), but is offset by moderate 
vertical wind shear (20 knots). Navgem and GFS show the disturbance 
moving to the north over the next several days, but are divided as 
to when it will begin to intensify. Other global models do not show 
intensification and are divided as to the future track of the 
disturbance. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10 to 
15 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1006 
mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical 
cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
3. Justification for reissue: added area in para 1.B.(1) as a low.//

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