Tropical Weather Discussion

000 

abpw10 pgtw 191300
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
South Pacific oceans reissued/191300z-200600zoct2017//
ref/b/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/190751zoct2017//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/190752zoct2017//
ref/c/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/182021zoct2017//
narr/refs b and a are tropical cyclone warnings. Ref c is a
tropical cyclone formation alert.//
Rmks/
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 190600z, tropical depression 26w (twentysix) was 
located near 10.9n 118.0e, approximately 283 nm southwest of 
Manila, Philippines, and had tracked northeastward at 10 knots over 
the past six hours. Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated 
at 25 knots gusting to 35 knots. See ref b (wtpn31 pgtw 190900) for 
the final warning on this system.
      (2) at 190600z, typhoon 25w (lan) was located near 16.3n 
130.1e, approximately 625 nm south-southeast of Kadena AB, Okinawa, 
Japan, and had tracked north-northwestward at 10 knots over the 
past six hours. Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 
75 knots gusting to 90 knots. See ref a (wtpn32 pgtw 190900) for 
further details.
      (3) no other tropical cyclones.
    B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 93w) previously located 
near 15.2n 147.8e, is now located near 14.5n 148.8e, approximately 
245 nm east-northeast of Guam. Animated multispectral satellite 
imagery depicts flaring convection with formative convective 
banding wrapping into a low-level circulation center (LLCC). The 
decrease in convection can be attributed to the diurnal convective 
minimum and not a loss of low level structure. Upper-level analysis 
reveals a favorable environment with 93w under a tongue of low (10-
15 kt) vertical wind shear (vws), with high vws to the north and 
south. Good diffluence aloft and poleward outflow are maintaining 
convection through the diurnal minimum phase. SSTs are favorable, 
in the 30-31c range. Global model track and intensity guidance 
differs greatly over the next several days. Some models predict an 
eastward track, turning northward then recurving to the northeast, 
with gradual intensification. Others predict southeastward motion 
and little to no consolidation. Maximum sustained surface winds are 
estimated at 18 to 23 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is 
estimated to be near 1009 mb. The potential for the development of 
a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains 
high. See ref c (wtpn22 pgtw 182030) for further details.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
3. Justification for reissue: updated with the final warning for TD 
26w//
nnnn

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