Tropical Weather Discussion


abpw10 pgtw 250600
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans/250600z-260600zjun2019//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/250151zjun2019//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone formation alert.//
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 94w) previously located 
near 16.4n 128.5e is now located near 18.2n 126.5e, approximately 
490 nm south of Kadena AB, Okinawa. Animated multispectral satellite 
imagery and a 242130z ssmis 37ghz microwave image depict a broad, 
partially-exposed low level circulation (llc) with deep convection 
displaced to the northeast. Upper-level analysis indicates a 
marginally-favorable environment with low-to-moderate (10 to 20 
knot) vertical wind shear offset by good equatorward outflow. 
Additionally, warm (29 to 30 celsius) sea surface temperatures are 
conducive. Global models are in good agreement that 94w will 
track northward near Okinawa within the next 2 days. The system is 
expected to gradually strengthen and transition into a subtropical 
low as it interacts with a sharp, deep shortwave trough over the 
East China Sea. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 
to 23 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1004 
mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical 
cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high. See ref a 
(wtpn21 pgtw 250200) for further details.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.//

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