Tropical Weather Discussion


abpw10 pgtw 230900
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans reissued/230900z-240600zaug2017//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/230751zaug2017//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone final warning.//
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 230600z, typhoon 15w (hato) was located near 22.2n 
112.9e, approximately 72 nm west of Hong Kong, and had tracked west-
northwestward at 16 knots over the past six hours. Maximum sustained 
surface winds were estimated at 85 knots gusting to 105 knots. See 
ref a (wtpn31 pgtw 230900) for the final warning on this system.
      (2) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) an area of convection (invest 96w) has persisted near 
14.5n 132.3e, approximately 655 nm east of Manila, Philippines. 
Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts a developing low-
level circulation center (LLCC) with strong mid-level turning and 
flaring deep convection. A 230651z ssmis 37ghz image shows curved 
deep convective banding over the western semi-Circle of the LLCC 
with shallow banding over the eastern semi-Circle wrapping around an 
elongated LLCC. A 230012z ascat image shows a broad, defined 
circulation with 10 to 15 knot winds. Upper-level analysis reveals a 
marginally-favorable environment with low to moderate northerly 
vertical wind shear and broad diffluence aloft. The GFS model 
depicts a compact system tracking west-northwestward toward Luzon 
with gradual development over the next 2 to 3 days. Maximum 
sustained surface winds are estimated at 10 to 15 knots. Minimum sea 
level pressure is estimated to be near 1008 mb. The potential for 
the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 
hours is low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
3. Justification for reissue: updated para. 1.A.(1) to reflect the 
final warning on TY 15w and added a low area in para. 1.B.(1).//

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