Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones
Tropical Weather Discussion
000 axnt20 knhc 280443 twdatTropical weather discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1243 am EDT Tue Mar 28 2017Tropical weather discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0415 UTC....Special features... a middle to upper level shortwave trough is noted on water vapor imagery in the vicinity of 33n69w supporting a 1008 mb low centered near 26n68w. Near gale to gale force winds are occurring within 30 nm either side of a line from 27n69w to 30n64w with fresh to strong winds occurring elsewhere primarily within the NW semicircle of the low. The low is forecast to move E-NE through Thursday with the near gale to gale force wind area rotating around the base of the low. By late Thursday...the low will have moved N of the discussion area with near gale to gale force winds expected N of 28n between 44w-54w. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers miahsfat2/fznt02 knhc for more details....ITCZ/monsoon trough... the monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08n13w to 04n18w. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 04n18w to 01n25w to 01n50w. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 02n-04n between 16w-22w. Scattered moderate convection is S of 06n between 24w-43w....Discussion...Gulf of Mexico... west-northwesterly flow aloft prevails over the Gulf this evening with water vapor imagery indicating a relatively dry and stable airmass in place. A ridge axis extends W-SW from a 1018 mb high centered across the east-central Gulf near 27n84w to the Mexico coast near 25n98w. Mostly gentle to moderate S-se winds prevail across the basin under clear skies and these winds are expected to increase across western portions by Tuesday night as the next area of low pressure develops across the SW conus. As this low ejects into the Southern Plains by Wednesday night...the associated cold front is forecast to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coast Thursday.Caribbean Sea... west-southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the Caribbean basin this evening with mostly dry and stable conditions noted on water vapor imagery. This stability filters to the surface with most of the basin under relatively clear skies and fair conditions. With the special features low pressure area located N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico...the pressure gradient remains fairly weak and results in gentle to moderate trades. This overall wind pattern is expected to persist through Thursday with the exception of occasional fresh E-se winds across the Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise...little change is expected through the remainder of the week....Hispaniola... dry and stable air aloft prevails within southwesterly flow aloft...however a surface trough extends southward from the special features low pressure area from the low to the north- central coast near 20n70w. Low-level moisture convergence in the vicinity of the surface trough is generating isolated showers across central portions of the island that are expected to persist through the overnight hours into early Tuesday. As the low pressure area moves E-NE during the next 24 hours...conditions will trend drier Tuesday into Wednesday.Atlantic Ocean... the primary focus for the SW north Atlc is the special features low pressure area centered on a 1008 mb low near 26n68w. A warm front extends E-NE from the low to 27n57w and provides much of the lift generating scattered showers and isolated tstms from 23n-35n between 52w-67w. The remainder of the SW north Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge axis extending from 32n75w to a 1018 mb high centered in the east-central Gulf of Mexico near 27n84w. Farther east across the central Atlc...a middle to upper level low is centered over the north-central north Atlc near 47n39w that supports a stationary front entering the discussion area near 32n35w and extending to 30n44w to 32n53w. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring from 25n-30n between 40w-46w. The remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge with axis extending from N of the Canary Islands near 32n14w SW to 24n33w.For additional information please visit http://www.Hurricanes.Gov/marine$$ Huffman
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