Tropical Weather Discussion

000 
axnt20 knhc 231735
twdat 

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1235 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

Tropical weather discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...Special features... 

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front will move off the Texas coast this afternoon and 
reach the western Florida Panhandle to Tampico Mexico by Sun 
morning. NW to N gale force winds around 25 to 35 kts will be 
possible in the far SW Gulf of Mexico with seas 8 to 12 feet from  
sun evening through Sun night. Please read the latest High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO 
headers hsfat2/ fznt02 knhc or at website 
www.Hurricanes.Gov/text/miahsfat2.Shtml for further details.

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

A tight pressure gradient between a 1025 mb Bermuda high centered
near 28n67w and lower pressure north of Colombia is forcing winds
of near-gale force over the central Caribbean and reaching gale- 
force just north of Colombia at night time. These conditions will 
continue through Wed. The present gale will end on 23/1800 UTC, 
and start again on 24/0300 UTC. Please read the latest High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO 
headers hsfat2/fznt02 knhc or at website 
www.Hurricanes.Gov/text/miahsfat2.Shtml for further details. 

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front extends from a deep 959 mb low north of our area at 
44n33w west-southwestward to 31n35w to 26n52w to 29n63w. The 
front will push southeastward and bring SW gale-force winds ahead 
of the front N of 29n until 23/1800 UTC. Seas will peak at 22 ft 
under a NW swell on Saturday, before diminishing on Sunday. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers hsfat2/fznt02 knhc or at 
website www.Hurricanes.Gov/text/miahsfat2.Shtml for further 
details. 

...Monsoon trough/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa reaching the east Atlantic
waters near 04n16w. The ITCZ continues from that point to near 
04s37w. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 400 nm north
and south of the ITCZ between 21w-35w.

Gulf of Mexico...

A cold front is inland over S Texas. Scatterometer data indicates
southeasterly gentle to moderate across the basin with locally 
fresh winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula in the central Gulf of 
Mexico. Latest observations report areas of fog lingering along 
the coast of Texas and Louisiana. The fog extends over the Gulf 
of Mexico by up to 90 nm offshore of southern Texas and 
northeastern Mexico. 

High pressure extending from the western Atlantic to the N 
central Gulf waters will weaken across the Gulf waters today as a 
cold front moves off the Texas coast early this afternoon. The 
front will reach from the western Florida Panhandle to Tampico, 
Mexico by Sun morning, before stalling and weakening from the 
Florida Keys to the SW Gulf of Mexico on Mon. The front will 
weaken on Tue, as it moves northward as a warm front. Gale force 
winds are expected west of the front in the far SW Gulf from early
sun evening through Sun night. 

Caribbean Sea...

A tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda 1026 mb high and 
the Colombian low is forcing winds of near gale over the central 
Caribbean and reaching gale just north of Colombia. No significant
deep convection is occurring over the Caribbean. See the special 
features section above for details about the gale conditions and 
forecast discussion. 

 
High pressure north of the region will maintain fresh to strong 
trade winds across the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras 
during the next several days. Winds will increase to gale force 
along the coast of Colombia, through Wed. Long period north to 
northeast swell will move through the Atlantic waters and 
Caribbean passages east of 65w through Wed. 

Atlantic Ocean... 

A cold front north of our area is producing gale-force winds 
ahead of it into our northeastern corner today. See the special 
features section above for more details.

A 1026 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 28n68w.  Further east,
a cold front extends from a deep 959 mb low north of our area at 
44n33w west-southwestward to 31n35w to 26n52w to 29n63w. 
Scattered showers are present within 180 nm southeast of the cold
front between 27w-42w. A stationary front is over the E Atlantic
from 31n23w to 20n42w. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
front. 

Over the W Atlantic, the surface high will shift slowly 
southeastward through Sun night ahead of a cold front that will 
move off the northeast Florida coast by late sun. The front will 
reach from near Bermuda to the Florida Keys by Mon afternoon, 
before stalling and weakening along roughly 26n through Tue night.
High pressure north of the area will shift eastward Tue through 
Wed night as a trough approaches the southeastern U.S. Fresh to 
strong northeast to east winds are expected over much of the 
waters Tue through Wed night. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.Hurricanes.Gov/marine

$$
Formosa


		
		

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