Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
620 am EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Tropical weather discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0915 UTC.

...Tropical waves...
a tropical wave extends from 08n35w to 16n34w moving W at 10-15 
kt. The wave remains low-amplitude and coincides with 700 mb 
troughing between 29w-36w and a maximum in 850 mb relative 
vorticity along the wave axis near 12n. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 09n-17n between 28w-38w.

A tropical wave extends from 07n63w to 16n63w moving W at 5-10 
kt. The wave coincides with shortwave 700 mb troughing between 
60w-65w and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the wave
axis near 11n. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 08n- 
16n between 58w-65w.

A tropical wave extends from 08n72w to 18n71w moving W at 10-15 
kt. The wave coincides with shortwave 700 mb troughing between 
68w-74w and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the wave
axis near 15n. Scattered moderate convection is from 13n-19n 
between 66w-72w.

A tropical wave extends from 08n85w to 17n85w moving W at 5-10 
kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing over Central 
America and a relatively divergent environment aloft due to an
upper level anticyclone centered near 16n85w. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is from 08n-17n between 79w-88w.

...ITCZ/monsoon trough...
the monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 07n11w to 
06n15w to 08n23w. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends
from 08n23w to 10n35w to 07n50w to 06n56w. Widely scattered 
moderate convection is from 07n-11n between 38w-57w.

...Discussion...

Gulf of Mexico...
a stationary front extends from the NW Bahamas SW to across the
Florida Straits near 24n82w. The front is supported aloft by a 
middle to upper level trough over the se conus and Florida 
Peninsula. Most convection is occurring across the SW north Atlc
waters...however a few isolated showers and tstms are noted S of
25n between 80w-83w. Another area of isolated showers is noted 
from 25n-27n between 90w-96w...however these remain shallow and 
continue moving westward within dry air aloft. Moderate to 
occasional fresh E-NE winds are expected Thursday with surface 
ridging remaining in place across the se conus through the 
upcoming weekend.

Caribbean Sea...
an upper level anticyclone is centered over Honduras near 16n85w 
providing an overall divergent environment over the western 
Caribbean W of 80w. Scattered showers and strong tstms are 
occurring generally W of 80w beneath the upper level feature... 
however in addition a tropical wave along 85w continues to 
provide focus for the convective activity as well. To the east of 
the tropical wave...the monsoon trough extends along 10n with 
scattered showers and strong tstms occurring S of 12n between 
72w-83w...including inland portions of northern Colombia and
Panama. The remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean 
features two tropical waves mentioned above. Scattered showers and
isolated tstms stretch from the southern adjacent coastal waters 
of Hispaniola southeastward to the Lesser Antilles and across 
Trinidad and Tobago. Elsewhere...fresh to strong trades prevail E 
of 76w and are expected to gradually expand westward through 
Sunday as the pressure gradient strengthens from high pressure 
anchored across the western north Atlc.

...Hispaniola...
a pair of tropical waves will skirt S of the island through
Friday bringing scattered showers and isolated tstms to southern 
portions of the island and the southern adjacent coastal waters. 
By Friday...fresh to strong trades are expected as high pressure 
builds in across the region.

Atlantic Ocean...
a stationary front extends from 32n60w W-SW to 30n70w to the NW
Bahamas near 27n79w to the Florida Straits near 24n82w. The front
is generating scattered showers and isolated tstms across a large
portion of the SW north Atlc this morning and lies within a 
relatively broad area of weaker low pressure W of 60w and is 
supported aloft by a middle to upper level trough axis extending 
from over the eastern U.S. Seaboard...the Florida Peninsula...and
the eastern Gulf of Mexico waters. The surface troughing will 
persist through early Saturday then shift eastward as high 
pressure builds in across the eastern conus and Atlc Seaboard. The
remainder of the central and eastern Atlc are under the influence
of a surface ridge anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 
32n33w.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.Hurricanes.Gov/marine

$$
Huffman


		
		

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