Tropical Weather Discussion

axnt20 knhc 280443

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1243 am EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Tropical weather discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0415 UTC.

...Special features...
a middle to upper level shortwave trough is noted on water vapor
imagery in the vicinity of 33n69w supporting a 1008 mb low
centered near 26n68w. Near gale to gale force winds are occurring
within 30 nm either side of a line from 27n69w to 30n64w with
fresh to strong winds occurring elsewhere primarily within the NW
semicircle of the low. The low is forecast to move E-NE through
Thursday with the near gale to gale force wind area rotating
around the base of the low. By late Thursday...the low will have
moved N of the discussion area with near gale to gale force winds
expected N of 28n between 44w-54w. Please see the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers miahsfat2/fznt02 knhc for 
more details.

...ITCZ/monsoon trough...
the monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08n13w to 
04n18w. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from
04n18w to 01n25w to 01n50w. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is from 02n-04n between 16w-22w. Scattered moderate
convection is S of 06n between 24w-43w.


Gulf of Mexico...
west-northwesterly flow aloft prevails over the Gulf this evening
with water vapor imagery indicating a relatively dry and stable
airmass in place. A ridge axis extends W-SW from a 1018 mb high 
centered across the east-central Gulf near 27n84w to the Mexico
coast near 25n98w. Mostly gentle to moderate S-se winds prevail 
across the basin under clear skies and these winds are expected to
increase across western portions by Tuesday night as the next area
of low pressure develops across the SW conus. As this low ejects
into the Southern Plains by Wednesday night...the associated cold
front is forecast to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coast

Caribbean Sea...
west-southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the Caribbean basin
this evening with mostly dry and stable conditions noted on water
vapor imagery. This stability filters to the surface with most of
the basin under relatively clear skies and fair conditions. With
the special features low pressure area located N of Hispaniola and
Puerto Rico...the pressure gradient remains fairly weak and
results in gentle to moderate trades. This overall wind pattern is
expected to persist through Thursday with the exception of
occasional fresh E-se winds across the Gulf of Honduras. 
Otherwise...little change is expected through the remainder of 
the week.

dry and stable air aloft prevails within southwesterly flow
aloft...however a surface trough extends southward from the
special features low pressure area from the low to the north-
central coast near 20n70w. Low-level moisture convergence in the
vicinity of the surface trough is generating isolated showers
across central portions of the island that are expected to persist
through the overnight hours into early Tuesday. As the low
pressure area moves E-NE during the next 24 hours...conditions
will trend drier Tuesday into Wednesday.

Atlantic Ocean...
the primary focus for the SW north Atlc is the special features
low pressure area centered on a 1008 mb low near 26n68w. A warm
front extends E-NE from the low to 27n57w and provides much of the
lift generating scattered showers and isolated tstms from 23n-35n
between 52w-67w. The remainder of the SW north Atlc is under the
influence of a surface ridge axis extending from 32n75w to a 1018
mb high centered in the east-central Gulf of Mexico near 27n84w.
Farther east across the central Atlc...a middle to upper level low
is centered over the north-central north Atlc near 47n39w that
supports a stationary front entering the discussion area near
32n35w and extending to 30n44w to 32n53w. Isolated showers and
tstms are occurring from 25n-30n between 40w-46w. The remainder of
the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface
ridge with axis extending from N of the Canary Islands near 32n14w
SW to 24n33w.

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