Tropical Weather Discussion

axpz20 knhc 280222

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Mar 28 2017

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...Intertropical convergence zone... 

The ITCZ axis is south of the Equator. A surface trough extends
from 06n85w to 04n99w. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
can be found from 04n to 06n between 88w and 92w...and within about
60 nm south of trough axis between 94w and 96w.


Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...

High pressure of 1031 mb centered north of the area near 35n133w
extends a ridge southeast to near the revillagigedo islands. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures inland
Mexico is supporting fresh to strong northwest winds west of 
Baja California norte and moderate to fresh winds west of Baja 
California sur. Seas west of the Baja California peninsula are in
the 8-10 ft range based on altimeter data. Gale force winds 
north of the area off the coast of Southern California will 
generate a set of large, long period northwesterly swell. This 
swell event will propagate into the waters off Baja California 
norte tonight, and peak near 13 ft Tuesday. The high pressure
will remain nearly stationary over the next 24 hours. 

Light winds with seas 2 ft or less prevails over the Gulf of 
California. As the aforementioned high pressure builds eastward,
winds will increase to 20-25 kt in the northern Gulf of 
California by early Tuesday morning. Then, the fresh to strong 
winds will spread south across the central Gulf of California 
waters later in the day before diminishing below 25 kt early on
Wednesday. Elsewhere, winds will generally be light to gentle 
with seas in the 4-6 ft range through the the week. 

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador...

Winds will pulse to moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Panama the 
next several nights. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas of
3- 5 ft are expected to prevail over the forecast waters the 
next several days.

Remainder of the area...

As previously mentioned, a high pressure of 1031 mb located 
north of area near 35n133 dominates the north waters. The 
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the 
equatorial trough is supporting fresh to strong trades over the 
trade wind belt. Seas over this area are in the 8-11 ft range in
a mix of long period NW swell and NE wind waves. The aerial 
extent of the trades will increase tonight as the high pressure 
slightly strengthens. Marine conditions across the forecast area
will change little over the next 48 hours under the influence of
a broad ridge.



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