Tropical Weather Discussion

000 
axpz20 knhc 200940
twdep 

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
912 UTC Tue Aug 20 2019

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC. 

...Special features... 

1008 mb low pressure located near 13.5n98w is associated with
numerous moderate and scattered strong convection north of 12n
between 94w and 104w. The low will move WNW at around 10 kt
across the S Mexico waters through Wed accompanied by numerous 
showers and thunderstorms and gusty winds. Increasing winds and 
building seas are expected as the low parallels the Mexican coast
up to west of Baja California sur by Sat. A Gale Warning is in 
effect from the entrance to the Gulf of California south to the 
waters offshore of michoacan and Guerrero for this system, which 
has a high chance for tropical cyclone formation during the next 
couple of days. Winds as high as hurricane force are possible 
with this system by Fri with seas to 18 ft. 

A 1007 mb low pressure is centered near 15.5n121w, or about 800 
nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. This low is
moving west at 5 to 10 kt, and this motion is expected to 
continue for the next several days. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm in the western
quadrant. Winds and seas may increase in association with this 
low, which has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation by 
Wednesday.

Refer to the latest NHC tropical weather outlook under 
AWIPS/WMO headers miatwoep/abpz20 knhc for more information on 
both of these lows.

...Tropical waves...

A tropical wave axis is along 115w, moving west around 5 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10n to 12n between 
110w and 113w. This wave is expected to be absorbed into the low
to its west. 

...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough...

The monsoon trough extends from 11n86w to low pressure near 
13.5n98w to another low near 15.5n121w to a third low near 
14n132w to beyond 11n140w. In addition to convection noted above
with the lows near 98w and 121w, scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 05n to 10n east of 95w, from 10n
to 12n between 110w and 113w, and from 12n to 14n between 126w to
133w.

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...

Please see the special features section for more details about 
the low pressure area in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region.

High pressure well northwest of the area will promote fresh to 
strong NW winds offshore of Baja California norte through Wed. 
Low pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will induce fresh to 
strong se to S winds over the Gulf of California Thu and Fri.

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador...

A weak pressure gradient is producing only gentle to moderate 
winds across the region for the next several days. A long-period 
SW swell will contribute toward combined seas up to 8 ft in the 
equatorial zones Wed and Thu. No tropical cyclone activity is 
expected in the area through Sat.

Remainder of the area...

Please see the special features section for more details about 
the low pressure area near 15.5n121w.

A 1009 mb low pressure is centered near 14n132w, moving west at 
5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
noted from 12n to 14n between 126w to 133w.

A weak ridge extends se from 1020 mb high pressure near 31n132w 
down to 18n116w. Aside from the low mentioned above, NE 
tradewinds are gentle to fresh south of the ridge and north of 
the monsoon trough. Southerly winds south of the monsoon trough 
will remain gentle to fresh. These winds should continue for the 
next few days, though the monsoon trough may lift northward to 
near 15n as the low near Mexico progresses west-northwestward. 
SW swell of up to 8 feet are reaching our southern border and
will reach to about the Equator from Tue to Thu. As the monsoon 
trough pulls northward, combined SW swell and wind waves south of
the trough may produce seas of up to 10 ft Wed through Fri in 
an area centered roughly around 10n110w.

$$
Landsea


		
		

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