Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones
Tropical Weather Discussion
000 axpz20 knhc 280222 twdepTropical weather discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Mar 28 2017Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC....Intertropical convergence zone...The ITCZ axis is south of the Equator. A surface trough extends from 06n85w to 04n99w. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection can be found from 04n to 06n between 88w and 92w...and within about 60 nm south of trough axis between 94w and 96w....Discussion...Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...High pressure of 1031 mb centered north of the area near 35n133w extends a ridge southeast to near the revillagigedo islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures inland Mexico is supporting fresh to strong northwest winds west of Baja California norte and moderate to fresh winds west of Baja California sur. Seas west of the Baja California peninsula are in the 8-10 ft range based on altimeter data. Gale force winds north of the area off the coast of Southern California will generate a set of large, long period northwesterly swell. This swell event will propagate into the waters off Baja California norte tonight, and peak near 13 ft Tuesday. The high pressure will remain nearly stationary over the next 24 hours.Light winds with seas 2 ft or less prevails over the Gulf of California. As the aforementioned high pressure builds eastward, winds will increase to 20-25 kt in the northern Gulf of California by early Tuesday morning. Then, the fresh to strong winds will spread south across the central Gulf of California waters later in the day before diminishing below 25 kt early on Wednesday. Elsewhere, winds will generally be light to gentle with seas in the 4-6 ft range through the the week.Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and within 750 nm of Ecuador...Winds will pulse to moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Panama the next several nights. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas of 3- 5 ft are expected to prevail over the forecast waters the next several days.Remainder of the area...As previously mentioned, a high pressure of 1031 mb located north of area near 35n133 dominates the north waters. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the equatorial trough is supporting fresh to strong trades over the trade wind belt. Seas over this area are in the 8-11 ft range in a mix of long period NW swell and NE wind waves. The aerial extent of the trades will increase tonight as the high pressure slightly strengthens. Marine conditions across the forecast area will change little over the next 48 hours under the influence of a broad ridge.$$ Gr
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