Tropical Weather Discussion

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twdep 

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1921 UTC Sat Feb 23 2019

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...Special features...

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: a strong ridge building east 
of Sierra Madre Oriental this weekend will support the next gap 
wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong winds will begin 
to funnel through the chivela pass on Sun afternoon, increasing 
to gale force sun evening. Winds are forecast to peak around 40 
kt on Sun night, with seas building to up to 14 or 15 ft. Minimal
gale conditions are forecast to persist through Mon morning. 
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers fzpn03/hsfep2 or at 
website https://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/text/miahsfep2.Shtml for further
details.

...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough...

A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 06n77w 
to 03n84w to 06n95w. The intertropical convergence zone axis 
extends from 06n95w to 02n108w to 06n118w, then resumes from 
06n123w to 02n140w. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is from 05n to 08n between 71w and 86w, and also from 
04n to 08n between 93w and 100w.

In addition, scattered moderate convection is from 12n to 16n
between 107w and 111w.

...Discussion...

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...  

Surface ridging prevails across the Pacific waters W of the Baja
California peninsula, extending to the region of Jalisco Mexico.
Latest scatterometer data show gentle to moderate N to NE winds 
across the offshore waters N of 15n and variable to gentle winds
elsewhere. NW swell with a period of mainly 11 to 13 seconds 
continue to support seas of 6 to 9 ft off baja, which will 
gradually subside to less than 8 ft by early sun. Gentle to 
moderate N to NW winds with seas to 7 ft are expected afterwards,
continuing through the middle of the week. 

Gulf of california: winds are forecast to increase to 20 to 25 
kt in the central and southern Gulf of California tonight through
Sun morning as the local pressure gradient tightens between the 
ridge W of Baja California and lower pressure over western 
Mexico.

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador...

Gulf of papagayo: fresh to strong NE to E winds will prevail 
across the Gulf of papagayo, with winds greatest during the 
overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of the 
nocturnal drainage flow, and some added enhancement from the 
easterly gradient flow from the SW Caribbean. The forecast calls 
for winds reaching 30 kt at night Sun night through Tue night, 
with building seas of 8 to 11 ft.

Gulf of panama: moderate to fresh winds are expected to become 
fresh to strong Mon night and Tue night. Seas of 3 to 5 ft will
build to 5 to 7 ft in response to the increasing winds.

Remainder of the area... 

A ridge extends se across the northern waters to the outer
boundary of the offshore waters. The pressure gradient between 
the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds from 10n to 17n 
between 112w and 140. Seas over this area are in the 7 to 10 ft 
range. NW swell continues to propagate across the NE waters, 
particularly N of 17n between roughly 120w and 130w. This swell 
event will continue to push southward through late tonight before
starting to subside.

Another set of long period NW swell will reach the far NW corner
of the forecast area by Mon night, and then spread se across the
NW waters through mid week.

$$
Lewitsky


		
		

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