Tropical Weather Discussion

000 
axpz20 knhc 230933
twdep 

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
933 UTC Wed Aug 23 2017

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...Special feature...

Tropical Storm Kenneth is centered near 23.5n 134.3w at 0900 
UTC, moving NNW at 9 knots. The estimated minimum central 
pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts
to 60 kt. Convection has virtually dissipated as Kenneth has
moved over cooler waters. Kenneth will continue to weaken, 
likely becoming a tropical depression by late Wednesday and a 
remnant low by Thursday. Please refer to the National Hurricane 
Center forecast advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers wtpz23 
knhc/miatcmep3, and the High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS 
headers fzpn03 knhc/miahsfep2 for more information.

 
...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough... 

The monsoon trough extends from 09n79w to 09n130w. The
intertropical convergence zone reaches from 09n130w to 07n140w.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from
06n to 08n east of 83w, and within 30 nm south of the axis 
between 126w and 137w. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
within 90 nm of the axis between 113w and 123w.

...Discussion...

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...

A surface trough will prevail across the Gulf of California 
through the end of the week with a weak surface low developing 
at times along the trough north of 29n. Fresh winds will pulse
off the coast of Baja California sur from 24n to 27n. Elsewhere the
pressure gradient between this elongated area of low pressure 
and surface ridging W of the area will allow moderate NW winds 
off Baja California through Friday evening, then decreasing to a 
gentle breeze through Monday. Seas will remain between 3 and 5 ft
during this period. Increasing southwesterly winds to the south 
of the area may bring 6 to 9 ft swell to the offshore waters 
south of 15n Saturday into Monday. Fresh to strong SW winds will 
accompany the swell starting Sunday evening through Monday night.

      
Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador...

Light and variable winds are expected N of the monsoon trough 
through Sunday while moderate to fresh WSW winds are expected S 
of the monsoon trough axis, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Cross 
equatorial swell of 6 to 8 ft will propagate across the area 
beginning on Saturday.  

Remainder of the area...

High pressure centered near 26n125 will tighten the pressure 
gradient over NW waters as weakening tropical cyclone Kenneth 
moves northward. This will result in an increase of seas over a 
large portion of the area N of 25n and W of 135w through 
Thursday. Moderate to locally fresh NNE flow is forecast 
elsewhere N of the monsoon trough and W of 120w. Moderate to 
fresh southerly flow is forecast south of the monsoon trough 
through Friday. By Saturday, models are forecasting a slight 
intensification of the southerly flow south of the monsoon trough
east of 120w. This may build seas to 7 to 8 ft from about 05n to
15n, east of 120w Saturday through Monday. 

$$
Christensen


		
		

View All Hurricanes and Tropical Cyclones

Category 6

Welcome to Category 6. This is the collective home for Weather Underground's featured writeups by Dr. Jeff Masters (right), Bob Henson (left), Chris Burt, and other regular contributors.

Learn more about and the hurricane season in our hurricane archive.

View All Hurricanes and Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Archive

All Atlantic Storms (1851-2017)

Named Storms for 2016

Historical Hurricane Statistics


Articles of Interest