Tropical Weather Discussion

axpz20 knhc 191508

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1307 UTC Sat Oct 19 2019

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...Special features...

Tropical Depression Octave is centered near 11.5n 125.9w at 
19/1500 UTC moving ENE at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with 
gusts to 40 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 240 nm of 
Octave. Octave is is forecast to weaken to a remnant low this
evening. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO 
headers miatcmep3/wtpz23 knhc for more details.

...Tropical waves...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 88w N of 03n, moving west 
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted from 07n to 11n between 86w and 89w. 

...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough...

The monsoon trough extends from 10n85w to 13n90w to 1007 mb low 
near 17n105w to 12n123w. It resumes west of T.D. Octave near 
11n129w to 10n140w. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is N of 04n between 77w and 81w. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is over waters from 13n to 20n 
between 100w and 107w. Scattered moderate convection is from 12n
to 15n between 107w and 111w. Scattered moderate isolated strong  
convection is from 08n to 11n between 135w and 139w. 

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico... 

A set of large NW to N swell propagating across the Baja 
California offshore waters will spread southeastward and reach 
the revillagigedo islands by tonight. Fresh to strong NW to N 
winds will continue across the Baja California norte offshore 
zones through the weekend. Fresh to strong monsoonal flow will 
continue over the offshore waters south and southwest of the 
Tehuantepec region today. Strong northerly winds will develop 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Tue night and continue 
through Wed. Moderate to fresh NW winds will develop in the 
northern and central Gulf of California late Sun night and 
continue through Tue night. 

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador...

Moderate SW to W winds will prevail across much of the region 
through the middle of next week. SW swell between Colombia and 
the galapagos islands will spread northward across the forecast 
waters this weekend. The swell will start to subside early next 

Remainder of the area...

Please see the special features section for more details about 
Tropical Depression Octave.

A large set of NW swell continues propagating across the northern
waters tonight. Seas 8 ft or greater are covering the waters N of
a line from 24n114w to 12n140w. The swell will continue 
propagating southeastward through the weekend. Seas 8 ft or 
greater will cover the waters north of 10n and west of 110w by 
sun, with seas 12 ft or greater north of 27n between 119w and 
123w. This swell will gradually decay early next week, and seas 
will subside below 8 ft across most of the region by Tue.

Otherwise, a high pressure ridge extends across the waters mainly
north of 20n. Earlier scatterometer data showed moderate to
locally fresh NE winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 
125w. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail south of the 
monsoon trough, with fresh to strong monsoon flow noted S of the
monsoon trough between 105w and 117w.



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