Tropical Weather Discussion

axpz20 knhc 182204

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Apr 18 2019

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...Special features...

Gulf of tehunatepec gale warning: gentle to moderate south to 
southwest winds across the Gulf will become moderate to fresh 
north winds early Fri, before abruptly increasing to minimal gal-
force speeds Fri morning around 1200 UTC. Winds will further 
increase to a strong gale Fri afternoon through early Sat as a 
very tight pressure gradient sets up over southeastern Mexico. 
Waveheights will build to the range of 11-18 ft with these winds 
Fri night. The pressure gradient will begin to slacken on Sat as 
the high pressure center over eastern Mexico shifts eastward and 
weakens. Strong winds of 20-25 kt are forecast to reach as far 
south as 09n and between 93w and 100w Sat morning, with 
waveheights of 10-14 ft in mixed NE and SW swell. These winds 
will diminish to fresh winds Sun morning, with seas lowering to 
less than 8 ft subsequently. Please refer to the Pacific High 
Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header miahsfep2 and under the WMO 
header fzpn03 knhc for more details. 

...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough...   

A trough extends from 08n84w to 06n93w to 03n101w. The ITCZ 
extends from 05n127w to 02n140w. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is from 03n to 10n between 81w and 102w. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 01s to 3.5s between 101w and 125w.


Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico... 

High pressure of 1026 mb is analyzed north of the area near 
35n133w, with a ridge extending southeastward to just NW of the 
revillagigedo islands. The pressure gradient associated with 
this high supports mainly moderate N to NW winds across the 
offshore waters of Baja California. Waveheights with these winds 
are in the range of 5-7 ft attributed to NW swell. Little change 
in these conditions is expected through Sun morning. On Sun 
morning, low pressure deepening over the state of Nevada will 
increase the pressure gradient between the ridge and the area of 
low pressure, thus resulting in moderate to fresh NW winds 
mainly N of Cabo San Lazaro and moderate winds elsewhere off the 
coast of baja. A new pulse of NW swell will begin to propagate 
through the far northeastern waters early on sun, bringing seas 
of 7-9 ft there. This swell will gradually decay through Mon.

Gulf of california: fresh to strong NW winds will resume this 
evening S of 28n, with seas up to 7 ft. These winds will 
diminish to mainly fresh winds early on Fri and to gentle to 
moderate winds Fri afternoon.

Gulf of tehuantepec: please read the special features section 
for details about a Gale Warning.

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador...

Gulf of papagayo: moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse at 
night, increasing to fresh to strong Sat evening as the pressure 
gradient tightens from southern Mexico to Costa Rica. Strong 
winds downstream will reach 09n and 91w on Sun morning with seas 
to 8 ft. Fresh to strong winds will continue to pulse every 
night through Tue, however seas are expected to be below 8 ft.

Gulf of panama: mainly variable light to NE moderate winds are 
expected through early next week. 

Light to moderate wind speeds will prevail elsewhere across the 
waters west of Ecuador through Mon night. The sea heights will 
remain in the range from 6 feet to 7 feet, in S to SW swell 
through midweek. 

Remainder of the area...

A high pressure ridge extends into the area N of 14n W of 113w. 
A trough extends from 02n128w to 09n128w. The pressure gradient 
between the ridge and lower pressure in the subtropics and 
tropics is resulting in fresh northeast to east trades from 05n 
to 12n between 123w and 130w, and from 08n to 11n W of 136w with 
seas to 9 ft. These winds are forecast to increase to strong 
speeds beginning late tonight as the ridge builds some southward 
tightening the gradient. These winds will change little in 
speeds through Sat as the gradient remains intact. 



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