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000 
FXAK69 PAFG 171301
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
401 AM AKST Fri Jan 17 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Cold wind chill values across the Interior will be the main issue
for today, primarily in areas that see Tanana Valley Jet winds as
well as over the higher terrain north of Fairbanks. High pressure
over the forecast area will limit the chances for precipitation
across the forecast area 

The models are in reasonably good agreement with the synoptic
scale pattern out through the weekend. The 00Z model suite
initialized the surface high over the Yukon Territory several
millibars too low again today. This has been a consistent trend
with the models over the past several days. 

Aloft, at 500 mb, a 548 dam ridge is centered north of Anaktuvuk
Pass. This ridge will slowly slide off to the north and east as a
511 dam low moves from the Gulf of Alaska into the Bering Sea. By
Sunday night a southerly flow pattern will develop aloft over the
forecast area. 

Interior: Mostly clear skies are expected to persist over the
Interior through Saturday. We are currently dealing with some
localized pockets of low clouds this morning, primarily in the
Yukon Flats and the Upper Tanana Valley. A strong surface ridge of
high pressure that stretches from the Yukon Flats into the Yukon
Territory combined with a surface low in the Bering Sea will 
create a tight pressure gradient over parts of the forecast area 
into Saturday. Easterly Tanana Valley Jet winds with gusts up to 
40 mph are expected near Delta Junction. Gusty easterly winds are 
expected over higher terrain areas north of Fairbanks as well. Low
temperatures tonight through Sunday night the Yukon Flats and the
upper Tanana Valley have the potential to drop to 35 to 45 below 
zero; however we will have to watch for fog and stratus that may 
affect the forecast in these areas. Low temperatures around 
Fairbanks tonight though Sunday night will be around 25 below in 
the valley with warmer temperatures and a little bit of wind in 
the hills. Wind chill values around 40 below are expected for the 
Delta Junction area as well as over summits along the Dalton and 
Elliott Highways into Saturday. Early next week, temperatures 
look to warm up as cloud cover increases and southerly flow 
develops over the area.

West Coast: A front that has been bringing strong winds to the 
west coast over the past 24 hours will move off to the north 
today. Winds will decrease from south to north today as the front 
moves out of the area. Some gusts up to 40 mph are possible north
of Kivalina this morning. With the ridge in place aloft, we 
aren't anticipating any precipitation through Saturday for the
west coast. St Lawerence Island will see snow showers at times 
through the weekend. Mostly clear skies are expected today into 
Saturday. Cloud cover is expected to increase on Sunday. Highs 
today though the weekend will generally be in the single digits 
above zero near the coast with lows in the single digits below. 

North Slope and Brooks Range: Strong winds will continue this 
morning along the Chukchi Sea Coast east of Point Lay with gusts
up to 45 mph possible. Winds will diminish during the day today 
along the coast a front moves to the norhteast through the Arctic
Ocean. Southerly gap winds with gusts up to 25 mph are possible 
in the Brooks Range this morning. The southerly gap winds will 
likely persist at times into Saturday. Some high level clouds are
expected this morning; however, we expect cloud cover to diminish 
during the course of the day as the ridge moves north. Mostly 
clear skies are expected to persist into Sunday. Clouds will 
increase from west to east Sunday night. Highs today will be in 
the single digits above near the coast with temperatures in the 
teens closer to the Brooks Range. Temperatures tomorrow will be a 
bit cooler after the high clouds move out. 

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ223-AKZ224-
AKZ226.

Gale Warning for PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ230.
&&

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