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FXUS63 KIWX 291821

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
221 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

Issued at 1223 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

Strong southwest winds will continue to gust up to 50 mph this
afternoon into early this evening as deep low pressure tracks 
into the Great Lakes region. A few rain showers and mainly cloudy
skies are expected otherwise this afternoon with mostly dry
conditions and near to below temperatures to follow for next week. 


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

Will maintain Wind Advisory as is for this afternoon. While most 
gusts have held in the 40 to 55 mph range, a few rogue gusts
around 60 can't be ruled out for locations that where able to get
some breaks in the clouds across northeastern Indiana and
northwest Ohio.  

Winds diminish below advisory levels this evening, but will 
likely remain breezy through the overnight hours given a 
sufficiently strong surface pressure gradient. As winds shift out
of a westerly to northwesterly direction overnight, drizzle/light
showers could be possible across far northern Indiana and 
southern Lower Michigan as winds advect additional moisture off 
the Lake. 

Fairly quiet weather is forecast for the start of the work week 
as the upper low continues a slow eastward progression into the 
eastern Great Lakes. Northwest flow aloft will result in mostly 
cloudy skies for the first half of the day Monday. Breezy 
northwest winds of 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts will also be 
possible for the first half of the day as the surface pressure 
gradient continues to slowly weaken. By the afternoon, winds shift
out of the north which will help to diminish both clouds and 


.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

A closed low from the Southern Plains will start to eject 
eastwards on Tuesday, but upper troughing over the western Great 
Lakes will help to block the northern progression of the Southern 
Plains low. This maintains previous model output which keep the 
area mainly rain-free through the middle of the week. The 
northerly flow aloft over the area will help to maintain our near 
to slightly below average temperatures into Thursday. Isolated 
light showers/sprinkles can't entirely be ruled out on Wednesday, 
but this should be fairly localized. 

During the second half of the work week, models show a shortwave 
breaking from a stalled low over the Pacific NW/British Columbia. 
The shortwave then progresses towards the area to bring another 
chance for rain Friday or Saturday. There are differences in 
timing between medium range solutions, however there has been a 
trend with the latest 12z run of the GFS/CMC to slow the timing to
be closer align with the 00z ECMWF. Expect continued adjustments 
to this portion of the forecast moving forward. 


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

Southwest winds will continue to gust between 35 and 50 knots this
afternoon into early this evening as a deep low pressure system
tracks into the Northern Great Lakes. A few showers will also 
remain possible during this time within a high MVFR to low VFR
stratocu deck. Winds will eventually veer more to the west and
diminish some into tonight and Monday. 


IN...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for 

MI...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ077>081.

     Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ077.

OH...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ001-002-004-005-

LM...Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.




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