Marine Weather for HS 100

Forecast

marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 328 am EST Fri Jan 17 2020

.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.

At 06z a storm center is located near 41n 61w while continuing to rapidly intensify as it pulls E of the waters.Continueing to pull E of the waters. The most recent ascat passes show widespread gales from Hatteras N throughout the waters, unfortunately a swath of data was missing across the region of highest winds, but given the satellite appearance storm force conditions are likely occurring across the Georges Bank and far eastern portion of nt2. At 07z buoy 44011 reported 22 ft, which is a few feet above both the wna and wam guidance.

The overall forecast philosophy hasn't changed much overnight as most of the 00z global models remain in good agreement with the synoptic pattern. Once the storm exits the region there will be a brief respite on Sat before the next system crosses the region. The system Sat night and sun while producing plenty of gale winds across the region, the odds of reaching storm criteria are less certain as the low takes a more northernly track across Nova Scotia, then new foundland and doesn't deepen as much as the current system. I have decided for the morning package to maintain marginal storm winds briefly ahead of the front before it exits the nt2 waters. My confidence is low to moderate whether the winds will reach storm force. The remainder of the week is expected to be relatively quiet, although the ECMWF develops a low center S of the waters late in the week which will enhance the NE gradient over the southern waters. The GFS is much weaker with any possible wave development. This is a flip-flop from yesterday when the GFS was forecasting a low to track NE along the eastern boundary of the offshore waters late in the week. I will blend the 30m GFS with the prior grids through Fri night, then transition to a blend of the ECMWF, boosted, with the prior grids. For the medium range period I will blend the 12z and 00z ECMWF for the wind grids.

Seas...both the wam and wan offer similar forecast solutions throughout much of the week before beginning to differ by Tue as the wam becomes influenced by development S of the area.

.Extratropical storm surge guidance...No significant positive surge events are expected over the next several days.

.Warnings...Preliminary.

.Nt1 New England waters... .anz800...Gulf of Maine... gale today. .Anz805...Georges Bank west of 68w... gale today. .Anz900...Georges Bank east of 68w... gale today into tonight. .Anz810...South of New England... gale today. Gale Saturday night. Gale possible Sunday. .Anz815...South of Long Island... gale today. Gale Saturday night. Gale possible Sunday.

.Nt2 mid-Atlantic waters... .anz820...Hudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon... gale today. Gale Saturday night. Gale possible Sunday. .Anz915...Hudson Canyon to the great South Channel... gale today. Gale Saturday night. Gale possible Sunday. .Anz920...Baltimore Canyon to the great South Channel... gale today. Gale Saturday night. Storm possible Sunday. .Anz905...The great South Channel to the Hague line... gale today into tonight. Gale Saturday night. Gale possible Sunday. .Anz910...East of the great South Channel and south of 39n... gale today into tonight. Gale Saturday night. Storm possible Sunday. Gale possible Sunday night. .Anz825...Inner waters from Baltimore Canyon to Cape Charles Light... gale today. Gale Saturday night. .Anz828...Inner waters from Cape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light... gale today. Gale Saturday night. Gale possible Sunday. .Anz925...Outer waters from Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon... gale today. Gale Saturday night. Gale possible Sunday. .Anz830...Inner waters from Currituck Beach Light to Cape Hatteras... gale today. Gale Saturday night. Gale possible Sunday. .Anz833...Inner waters from Cape Hatteras to Cape Fear... gale today. Gale Saturday night. Gale possible Sunday. .Anz930...Outer waters from Hatteras Canyon to Cape Fear... gale today. Gale Saturday night. Gale possible Sunday into Sunday night. .Anz835...Inner waters from Cape Fear to 31n... gale Saturday night. Gale possible Sunday. .Anz935...Outer waters from Cape Fear to 31n... gale possible Sunday.

$$

.Forecaster Shaw. Ocean prediction center.

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